{ "schema": "mw-uk-long-leads-v1", "production_accuracy_claim": false, "model": "NOAA GFS Global", "requested_dates": [ "2024-01-01", "2026-08-31" ], "target_dates": 974, "stations": [ { "id": "UKM00003212", "name": "Keswick", "latitude": 54.6167, "longitude": -3.1667, "elevation_m": 81, "group": "UK valleys and lower ground" }, { "id": "UKM00003063", "name": "Aviemore", "latitude": 57.2, "longitude": -3.8333, "elevation_m": 228, "group": "UK valleys and lower ground" }, { "id": "UKM00003305", "name": "Capel Curig", "latitude": 53.1, "longitude": -3.9333, "elevation_m": 215, "group": "UK valleys and lower ground" }, { "id": "UKM00003225", "name": "Shap", "latitude": 54.5, "longitude": -2.6833, "elevation_m": 255, "group": "UK valleys and lower ground" }, { "id": "UKM00003227", "name": "Great Dun Fell", "latitude": 54.6833, "longitude": -2.45, "elevation_m": 847, "group": "UK high ground" }, { "id": "UKM00003072", "name": "Cairnwell", "latitude": 56.8833, "longitude": -3.4167, "elevation_m": 933, "group": "UK high ground" } ], "groups": { "UK valleys and lower ground": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 3616, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.2527682522123893, "seasonal_mae": 2.5793445796460177, "mae_skill": 0.5143075252146745, "bias": -0.5409596238938053, "unflagged_observations": 531, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.2067020697167756, 1.300159978308026 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -1.531470749043193, -1.1294527083918047 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "wind": { "n": 3603, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.401673494161613, "seasonal_mae": 4.285350323557156, "mae_skill": -0.027144378363890498, "bias": -0.694456033729796, "unflagged_observations": 532, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 89, "misses": 245, "false_alarms": 138, "correct_negative": 3131 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 327, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 3243 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 4.195096941470558, 4.614731440562946 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.08090531842832213, 0.31551003541521727 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.909620443442315, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.28053384062063424, "bias": -0.353739195791056, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 402, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 157, "correct_negative": 1885 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 81, "misses": 136, "false_alarms": 39, "correct_negative": 2405 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm", "mae_95_interval": [ 0.7604024297646166, 1.058097014925373 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.4722746133534515, -0.2451769087523278 ], "week_blocks": 114 } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 3616, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.3907549778761061, "seasonal_mae": 2.5793445796460177, "mae_skill": 0.4608107079407864, "bias": -0.5661808628318584, "unflagged_observations": 531, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.3335320712065555, 1.447552986512524 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -1.3975814332247556, -0.9904799326410328 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "wind": { "n": 3603, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.57072577919517, "seasonal_mae": 4.285350323557156, "mae_skill": -0.06659326171521274, "bias": -0.8598701154128943, "unflagged_observations": 532, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 66, "misses": 268, "false_alarms": 127, "correct_negative": 3142 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 327, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 3243 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 4.3499960233130395, 4.794659705581606 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 0.09497318767994595, 0.46256183315640653 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.033032694475761, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.18292066700353704, "bias": -0.34637354378053364, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 372, "misses": 247, "false_alarms": 183, "correct_negative": 1859 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 69, "misses": 148, "false_alarms": 55, "correct_negative": 2389 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm", "mae_95_interval": [ 0.8713468141930562, 1.1874667679453095 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.3477281261734885, -0.12274223034734928 ], "week_blocks": 114 } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 3616, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.5082771017699115, "seasonal_mae": 2.5793445796460177, "mae_skill": 0.4152479224094583, "bias": -0.6115625, "unflagged_observations": 531, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.4442841559858193, 1.5779098246590593 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -1.2862576177285316, -0.8723819918144611 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "wind": { "n": 3603, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.7207985631325595, "seasonal_mae": 4.285350323557156, "mae_skill": -0.1016132186863894, "bias": -0.9492854817154871, "unflagged_observations": 532, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 70, "misses": 264, "false_alarms": 135, "correct_negative": 3134 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 327, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 3243 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 4.505950225815222, 4.935443473124508 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 0.23632659912947654, 0.63839334879022 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.15152198421646, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.08920131973961898, "bias": -0.3918827508455468, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 325, "misses": 294, "false_alarms": 232, "correct_negative": 1810 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 61, "misses": 156, "false_alarms": 55, "correct_negative": 2389 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm", "mae_95_interval": [ 0.9743966817496229, 1.3238365493757094 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.22484917043740563, -0.009505703422053232 ], "week_blocks": 114 } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 3616, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.7154452433628318, "seasonal_mae": 2.5793445796460177, "mae_skill": 0.3349297891799107, "bias": -0.5653235619469026, "unflagged_observations": 531, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.6400417594654788, 1.7903108808290156 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -1.071447035684181, -0.6649847434119277 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "wind": { "n": 3603, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.990112530600541, "seasonal_mae": 4.285350323557156, "mae_skill": -0.16445848153165232, "bias": -1.0778767236859983, "unflagged_observations": 532, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 55, "misses": 279, "false_alarms": 147, "correct_negative": 3122 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 327, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 3243 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 4.760776985071166, 5.227973722625579 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 0.5034092091714909, 0.9107834649917482 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.3629462608042089, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": -0.07802514639003655, "bias": -0.30101465614430667, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 278, "misses": 341, "false_alarms": 281, "correct_negative": 1761 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 52, "misses": 165, "false_alarms": 77, "correct_negative": 2367 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.1476297125793207, 1.568579027355623 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.020799103808812478, 0.2139169472502805 ], "week_blocks": 114 } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 3616, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.8829894911504426, "seasonal_mae": 2.5793445796460177, "mae_skill": 0.26997365687028174, "bias": -0.5519109513274336, "unflagged_observations": 531, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.7972467388287536, 1.972114269942037 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.890779256794232, -0.5018521617852163 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "wind": { "n": 3603, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 5.313372485973204, "seasonal_mae": 4.285350323557156, "mae_skill": -0.23989221062391786, "bias": -0.9518123567387585, "unflagged_observations": 532, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 58, "misses": 276, "false_alarms": 128, "correct_negative": 3141 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 327, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 3243 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 5.05198620222613, 5.585440286003317 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 0.8216866849721407, 1.2186518233764678 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.247651258925216, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.013167672324109092, "bias": -0.8210447200300639, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 169, "misses": 450, "false_alarms": 149, "correct_negative": 1893 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 16, "misses": 201, "false_alarms": 20, "correct_negative": 2424 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.0425579655946149, 1.4595514307811293 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.07739361702127652, 0.04460911448684701 ], "week_blocks": 114 } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 3616, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.1551299778761064, "seasonal_mae": 2.5793445796460177, "mae_skill": 0.16446604502455786, "bias": -0.5742837389380531, "unflagged_observations": 531, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 2.0433378970427163, 2.277415062287656 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.6311126487683363, -0.22777200656096216 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "wind": { "n": 3603, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 5.578706780492987, "seasonal_mae": 4.285350323557156, "mae_skill": -0.30180880424782863, "bias": -1.2086533710820417, "unflagged_observations": 532, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 63, "misses": 271, "false_alarms": 129, "correct_negative": 3140 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 327, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 3243 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 5.326828513707391, 5.833662491870795 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 1.0669375045909684, 1.5112165989034385 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.2457346862081924, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.014683589453972634, "bias": -0.9775648252536641, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 124, "misses": 495, "false_alarms": 118, "correct_negative": 1924 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 6, "misses": 211, "false_alarms": 8, "correct_negative": 2436 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.027769404672193, 1.465349887133183 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.05563114134542699, 0.016347237880496055 ], "week_blocks": 114 } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 3616, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.377115597345133, "seasonal_mae": 2.5793445796460177, "mae_skill": 0.07840324394681619, "bias": -0.6600138274336284, "unflagged_observations": 531, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 2.2589640365002683, 2.496817802503477 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.3927245345016428, -0.01786630286493849 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "wind": { "n": 3603, "dates": 926, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 5.806168992354402, "seasonal_mae": 4.285350323557156, "mae_skill": -0.3548878280585597, "bias": -1.2515109098674047, "unflagged_observations": 532, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 52, "misses": 282, "false_alarms": 125, "correct_negative": 3144 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 327, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 3243 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 5.546850403670913, 6.076046402311224 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 1.3047367073477636, 1.7388277314882634 ], "week_blocks": 137 }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.3385945133408492, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": -0.05876408168118186, "bias": -0.9424276587748966, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 87, "misses": 532, "false_alarms": 153, "correct_negative": 1889 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 16, "correct_negative": 2428 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.1041942604856514, 1.566881150643452 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 0.022082858228810304, 0.13034457206372738 ], "week_blocks": 114 } } ], "UK high ground": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 1230, "dates": 907, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.343739837398374, "seasonal_mae": 2.864642276422764, "mae_skill": 0.5309222905568595, "bias": 0.6683089430894309, "unflagged_observations": 254, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.247514880952381, 1.4355324675324674 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -1.774130105900151, -1.2696153846153846 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "wind": { "n": 1231, "dates": 904, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 15.700984964619199, "seasonal_mae": 10.506331892798187, "mae_skill": -0.49443070377224707, "bias": -15.646578894281689, "unflagged_observations": 254, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 90, "misses": 681, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 460 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 662, "misses": 109, "false_alarms": 344, "correct_negative": 116 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 14.85341765333992, 16.571666760105163 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 4.41700740339842, 5.993818772907715 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 1230, "dates": 907, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.4364390243902438, "seasonal_mae": 2.864642276422764, "mae_skill": 0.49856251294873577, "bias": 0.5935934959349594, "unflagged_observations": 254, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.332609040444092, 1.5474126455906823 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -1.6799751449875724, -1.1781629260182875 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "wind": { "n": 1231, "dates": 904, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 15.870181664990792, "seasonal_mae": 10.506331892798187, "mae_skill": -0.5105349637649828, "bias": -15.79044424460302, "unflagged_observations": 254, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 85, "misses": 686, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 460 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 662, "misses": 109, "false_alarms": 344, "correct_negative": 116 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 14.997016461860673, 16.74783224170908 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 4.5716422817065965, 6.15979384949976 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 1230, "dates": 907, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.563219512195122, "seasonal_mae": 2.864642276422764, "mae_skill": 0.45430550786005996, "bias": 0.59269918699187, "unflagged_observations": 254, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.4586992481203007, 1.6758519793459554 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -1.562323314378554, -1.0473243883188637 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "wind": { "n": 1231, "dates": 904, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.2524960650679, "seasonal_mae": 10.506331892798187, "mae_skill": -0.5469239151114724, "bias": -16.09124039767476, "unflagged_observations": 254, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 74, "misses": 697, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 460 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 662, "misses": 109, "false_alarms": 344, "correct_negative": 116 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 15.328859741116307, 17.15884019242002 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 4.931145293405794, 6.543119507511491 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 1230, "dates": 907, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.7853658536585366, "seasonal_mae": 2.864642276422764, "mae_skill": 0.37675783522680506, "bias": 0.5917235772357724, "unflagged_observations": 254, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.6710810810810812, 1.904296636085627 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -1.3235749185667751, -0.834524400330852 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "wind": { "n": 1231, "dates": 904, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.571482090019348, "seasonal_mae": 10.506331892798187, "mae_skill": -0.5772852275282359, "bias": -16.290547605243834, "unflagged_observations": 254, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 74, "misses": 697, "false_alarms": 2, "correct_negative": 458 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 662, "misses": 109, "false_alarms": 344, "correct_negative": 116 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 15.655755572960087, 17.499027984036665 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 5.233907226054311, 6.858910707452339 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 1230, "dates": 907, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.9786016260162602, "seasonal_mae": 2.864642276422764, "mae_skill": 0.3093023717826826, "bias": 0.5204227642276423, "unflagged_observations": 254, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 1.8505781758957656, 2.1067866323907456 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -1.120033698399326, -0.6589903069466881 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "wind": { "n": 1231, "dates": 904, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.403484721859606, "seasonal_mae": 10.506331892798187, "mae_skill": -0.5612951208122181, "bias": -15.906815812552722, "unflagged_observations": 254, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 70, "misses": 701, "false_alarms": 7, "correct_negative": 453 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 662, "misses": 109, "false_alarms": 344, "correct_negative": 116 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 15.480347280560125, 17.338419204719017 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 5.057398676132598, 6.734504348099312 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 1230, "dates": 907, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.227219512195122, "seasonal_mae": 2.864642276422764, "mae_skill": 0.22251391368266293, "bias": 0.5427804878048781, "unflagged_observations": 254, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 2.082470119521912, 2.378657487091222 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.8981155977830564, -0.39362563237774006 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "wind": { "n": 1231, "dates": 904, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.817290678347835, "seasonal_mae": 10.506331892798187, "mae_skill": -0.6006814604701041, "bias": -16.254040659583158, "unflagged_observations": 254, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 69, "misses": 702, "false_alarms": 5, "correct_negative": 455 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 662, "misses": 109, "false_alarms": 344, "correct_negative": 116 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 15.820714612128858, 17.805041867754476 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 5.438283109677811, 7.124973421975038 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 1230, "dates": 907, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.4095934959349594, "seasonal_mae": 2.864642276422764, "mae_skill": 0.15885012388215158, "bias": 0.42684552845528456, "unflagged_observations": 254, "unit": "°C", "mae_95_interval": [ 2.258455882352941, 2.571807031888798 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ -0.6919215044971384, -0.23327514546965888 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "wind": { "n": 1231, "dates": 904, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.852089484191634, "seasonal_mae": 10.506331892798187, "mae_skill": -0.6039936350900257, "bias": -16.18536980460472, "unflagged_observations": 254, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 62, "misses": 709, "false_alarms": 7, "correct_negative": 453 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 662, "misses": 109, "false_alarms": 344, "correct_negative": 116 } } }, "unit": "mph", "mae_95_interval": [ 15.83673170749193, 17.854811868519572 ], "paired_difference_95_interval": [ 5.439073820228328, 7.226767120561444 ], "week_blocks": 136 }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } } ] }, "station_results": { "UKM00003212": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 900, "dates": 900, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.3371555555555554, "seasonal_mae": 2.5083444444444445, "mae_skill": 0.4669170900682611, "bias": -1.003911111111111, "unflagged_observations": 126, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 894, "dates": 894, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.5722421328629594, "seasonal_mae": 3.150226836413758, "mae_skill": -0.13396346306592544, "bias": 1.8069641081688321, "unflagged_observations": 126, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 8, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 62, "correct_negative": 823 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 9, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 885 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 695, "dates": 695, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.8125179856115108, "seasonal_mae": 1.2087769784172662, "mae_skill": 0.3278181168908463, "bias": -0.2064748201438849, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 113, "misses": 41, "false_alarms": 44, "correct_negative": 497 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 154, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 541 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 23, "misses": 29, "false_alarms": 14, "correct_negative": 629 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 52, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 643 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 900, "dates": 900, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.4930444444444444, "seasonal_mae": 2.5083444444444445, "mae_skill": 0.40476897112305155, "bias": -1.0360222222222222, "unflagged_observations": 126, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 894, "dates": 894, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.65679031777354, "seasonal_mae": 3.150226836413758, "mae_skill": -0.16080222398729171, "bias": 1.5569226722968488, "unflagged_observations": 126, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 3, "misses": 6, "false_alarms": 55, "correct_negative": 830 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 9, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 885 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 695, "dates": 695, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.9624460431654677, "seasonal_mae": 1.2087769784172662, "mae_skill": 0.2037852636590881, "bias": -0.18431654676258993, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 103, "misses": 51, "false_alarms": 56, "correct_negative": 485 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 154, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 541 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 21, "misses": 31, "false_alarms": 15, "correct_negative": 628 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 52, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 643 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 900, "dates": 900, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.5636444444444444, "seasonal_mae": 2.5083444444444445, "mae_skill": 0.37662291639904144, "bias": -1.059022222222222, "unflagged_observations": 126, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 894, "dates": 894, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.752398075850879, "seasonal_mae": 3.150226836413758, "mae_skill": -0.1911517077045275, "bias": 1.508856065841322, "unflagged_observations": 126, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 4, "misses": 5, "false_alarms": 60, "correct_negative": 825 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 9, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 885 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 695, "dates": 695, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.1820143884892087, "seasonal_mae": 1.2087769784172662, "mae_skill": 0.022140221402213944, "bias": -0.19093525179856113, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 88, "misses": 66, "false_alarms": 72, "correct_negative": 469 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 154, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 541 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 15, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 25, "correct_negative": 618 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 52, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 643 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 900, "dates": 900, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.7250666666666665, "seasonal_mae": 2.5083444444444445, "mae_skill": 0.31226882715912674, "bias": -0.9925777777777777, "unflagged_observations": 126, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 894, "dates": 894, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.9976603749019324, "seasonal_mae": 3.150226836413758, "mae_skill": -0.26900714853057983, "bias": 1.3860998080220535, "unflagged_observations": 126, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 4, "misses": 5, "false_alarms": 64, "correct_negative": 821 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 9, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 885 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 695, "dates": 695, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.3627338129496402, "seasonal_mae": 1.2087769784172662, "mae_skill": -0.12736578978693003, "bias": -0.1526618705035971, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 78, "misses": 76, "false_alarms": 82, "correct_negative": 459 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 154, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 541 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 11, "misses": 41, "false_alarms": 23, "correct_negative": 620 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 52, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 643 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 900, "dates": 900, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.9064222222222222, "seasonal_mae": 2.5083444444444445, "mae_skill": 0.23996792926720145, "bias": -1.0085777777777778, "unflagged_observations": 126, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 894, "dates": 894, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.344385500177433, "seasonal_mae": 3.150226836413758, "mae_skill": -0.3790706910246229, "bias": 1.476152757857265, "unflagged_observations": 126, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 3, "misses": 6, "false_alarms": 58, "correct_negative": 827 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 9, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 885 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 695, "dates": 695, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.2408633093525179, "seasonal_mae": 1.2087769784172662, "mae_skill": -0.02654445899297686, "bias": -0.7073381294964028, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 47, "misses": 107, "false_alarms": 45, "correct_negative": 496 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 154, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 541 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 5, "misses": 47, "false_alarms": 8, "correct_negative": 635 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 52, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 643 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 900, "dates": 900, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.1852444444444443, "seasonal_mae": 2.5083444444444445, "mae_skill": 0.12881006064203482, "bias": -1.035911111111111, "unflagged_observations": 126, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 894, "dates": 894, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.6286565652171205, "seasonal_mae": 3.150226836413758, "mae_skill": -0.46930897537728367, "bias": 1.2734523003371072, "unflagged_observations": 126, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 4, "misses": 5, "false_alarms": 60, "correct_negative": 825 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 9, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 885 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 695, "dates": 695, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.2046043165467626, "seasonal_mae": 1.2087769784172662, "mae_skill": 0.0034519700035710033, "bias": -0.8883453237410072, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 32, "misses": 122, "false_alarms": 34, "correct_negative": 507 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 154, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 541 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 2, "misses": 50, "false_alarms": 3, "correct_negative": 640 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 52, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 643 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 900, "dates": 900, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.4036444444444443, "seasonal_mae": 2.5083444444444445, "mae_skill": 0.04174067888957311, "bias": -1.0824666666666667, "unflagged_observations": 126, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 894, "dates": 894, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.721837222395872, "seasonal_mae": 3.150226836413758, "mae_skill": -0.49888800635424957, "bias": 1.330902028823255, "unflagged_observations": 126, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 2, "misses": 7, "false_alarms": 57, "correct_negative": 828 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 9, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 885 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 695, "dates": 695, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.327769784172662, "seasonal_mae": 1.2087769784172662, "mae_skill": -0.09844066182597322, "bias": -0.841726618705036, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 22, "misses": 132, "false_alarms": 47, "correct_negative": 494 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 154, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 541 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 52, "false_alarms": 4, "correct_negative": 639 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 52, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 643 } } }, "unit": "mm" } } ], "UKM00003063": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 911, "dates": 911, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.5047310647639955, "seasonal_mae": 2.9619538968166848, "mae_skill": 0.49198025452685723, "bias": -0.20308452250274422, "unflagged_observations": 140, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 906, "dates": 906, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.399896261531503, "seasonal_mae": 2.0575616545491555, "mae_skill": -0.6523909521809563, "bias": 2.6313876629895097, "unflagged_observations": 141, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 19, "correct_negative": 886 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 905 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 569, "dates": 569, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.5803163444639718, "seasonal_mae": 0.6015817223198594, "mae_skill": 0.03534910896874088, "bias": 0.008435852372583484, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 53, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 37, "correct_negative": 439 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 93, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 476 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 7, "misses": 13, "false_alarms": 7, "correct_negative": 542 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 20, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 549 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 911, "dates": 911, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.65, "seasonal_mae": 2.9619538968166848, "mae_skill": 0.44293528613888533, "bias": -0.27169045005488474, "unflagged_observations": 140, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 906, "dates": 906, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.5576175532967875, "seasonal_mae": 2.0575616545491555, "mae_skill": -0.729045419091618, "bias": 2.6595839239782313, "unflagged_observations": 141, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 19, "correct_negative": 886 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 905 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 569, "dates": 569, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.6434094903339191, "seasonal_mae": 0.6015817223198594, "mae_skill": -0.06952965235173814, "bias": -0.012126537785588755, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 41, "misses": 52, "false_alarms": 46, "correct_negative": 430 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 93, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 476 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 5, "misses": 15, "false_alarms": 10, "correct_negative": 539 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 20, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 549 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 911, "dates": 911, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.7910098792535676, "seasonal_mae": 2.9619538968166848, "mae_skill": 0.3953282388431405, "bias": -0.32558726673984634, "unflagged_observations": 140, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 906, "dates": 906, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.5119899785969997, "seasonal_mae": 2.0575616545491555, "mae_skill": -0.7068698626027479, "bias": 2.4479391348404698, "unflagged_observations": 141, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 14, "correct_negative": 891 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 905 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 569, "dates": 569, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.6797891036906855, "seasonal_mae": 0.6015817223198594, "mae_skill": -0.1300029214139644, "bias": -0.06643233743409489, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 38, "misses": 55, "false_alarms": 51, "correct_negative": 425 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 93, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 476 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 5, "misses": 15, "false_alarms": 7, "correct_negative": 542 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 20, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 549 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 911, "dates": 911, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.0184083424807904, "seasonal_mae": 2.9619538968166848, "mae_skill": 0.3185551116612435, "bias": -0.3095609220636663, "unflagged_observations": 140, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 906, "dates": 906, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.597393539682804, "seasonal_mae": 2.0575616545491555, "mae_skill": -0.7483770324593506, "bias": 2.4090519973122415, "unflagged_observations": 141, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 15, "correct_negative": 890 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 905 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 569, "dates": 569, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.6571177504393673, "seasonal_mae": 0.6015817223198594, "mae_skill": -0.09231668127373638, "bias": -0.08840070298769771, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 33, "misses": 60, "false_alarms": 48, "correct_negative": 428 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 93, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 476 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 7, "misses": 13, "false_alarms": 8, "correct_negative": 541 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 20, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 549 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 911, "dates": 911, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.1660043907793636, "seasonal_mae": 2.9619538968166848, "mae_skill": 0.26872447504762176, "bias": -0.21603732162458833, "unflagged_observations": 140, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 906, "dates": 906, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.859974306421033, "seasonal_mae": 2.0575616545491555, "mae_skill": -0.8759944801103978, "bias": 2.612277412547066, "unflagged_observations": 141, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 12, "correct_negative": 893 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 905 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 569, "dates": 569, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.6084358523725835, "seasonal_mae": 0.6015817223198594, "mae_skill": -0.011393514460999121, "bias": -0.3490333919156415, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 15, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 20, "correct_negative": 456 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 93, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 476 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 2, "misses": 18, "false_alarms": 2, "correct_negative": 547 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 20, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 549 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 911, "dates": 911, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.4293852908891327, "seasonal_mae": 2.9619538968166848, "mae_skill": 0.1798031382257239, "bias": -0.29331503841931944, "unflagged_observations": 140, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 906, "dates": 906, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.799878247536139, "seasonal_mae": 2.0575616545491555, "mae_skill": -0.8467870642587148, "bias": 2.2961435021271055, "unflagged_observations": 141, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 9, "correct_negative": 896 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 905 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 569, "dates": 569, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.6221441124780316, "seasonal_mae": 0.6015817223198594, "mae_skill": -0.034180543382997364, "bias": -0.4333919156414763, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 9, "misses": 84, "false_alarms": 16, "correct_negative": 460 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 93, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 476 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 20, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 549 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 20, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 549 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 911, "dates": 911, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.6938419319429197, "seasonal_mae": 2.9619538968166848, "mae_skill": 0.09051861514857285, "bias": -0.4378814489571899, "unflagged_observations": 140, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 906, "dates": 906, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.9839193415903704, "seasonal_mae": 2.0575616545491555, "mae_skill": -0.9362332753344933, "bias": 2.2910079309487745, "unflagged_observations": 141, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 10, "correct_negative": 895 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 1, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 905 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 569, "dates": 569, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.6493848857644992, "seasonal_mae": 0.6015817223198594, "mae_skill": -0.079462459830558, "bias": -0.4258347978910369, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 10, "misses": 83, "false_alarms": 22, "correct_negative": 454 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 93, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 476 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 20, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 548 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 20, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 549 } } }, "unit": "mm" } } ], "UKM00003305": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.0545136612021857, "seasonal_mae": 2.4497377049180327, "mae_skill": 0.5695401760420431, "bias": -0.3516939890710382, "unflagged_observations": 138, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 7.00909149597117, "seasonal_mae": 7.301824557846639, "mae_skill": 0.04009039926341351, "bias": -5.841679672797846, "unflagged_observations": 138, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 48, "misses": 202, "false_alarms": 13, "correct_negative": 652 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 243, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 639 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 708, "dates": 708, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.209180790960452, "seasonal_mae": 1.6981638418079097, "mae_skill": 0.2879480994760044, "bias": -0.6580508474576271, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 127, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 45, "correct_negative": 458 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 204, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 502 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 26, "misses": 54, "false_alarms": 12, "correct_negative": 616 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 80, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 628 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.1774863387978143, "seasonal_mae": 2.4497377049180327, "mae_skill": 0.5193418722200659, "bias": -0.32907103825136613, "unflagged_observations": 138, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 7.202470360129761, "seasonal_mae": 7.301824557846639, "mae_skill": 0.013606763204151662, "bias": -6.001712295399885, "unflagged_observations": 138, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 40, "misses": 210, "false_alarms": 13, "correct_negative": 652 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 243, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 639 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 708, "dates": 708, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.4274011299435028, "seasonal_mae": 1.6981638418079097, "mae_skill": 0.15944439823671308, "bias": -0.6152542372881356, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 129, "misses": 76, "false_alarms": 47, "correct_negative": 456 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 204, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 502 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 22, "misses": 58, "false_alarms": 18, "correct_negative": 610 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 80, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 628 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.3103169398907104, "seasonal_mae": 2.4497377049180327, "mae_skill": 0.4651194953401947, "bias": -0.38043715846994536, "unflagged_observations": 138, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 7.377733707431016, "seasonal_mae": 7.301824557846639, "mae_skill": -0.010395915292542135, "bias": -6.011515699259252, "unflagged_observations": 138, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 42, "misses": 208, "false_alarms": 15, "correct_negative": 650 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 243, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 639 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 708, "dates": 708, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.468361581920904, "seasonal_mae": 1.6981638418079097, "mae_skill": 0.1353239624053897, "bias": -0.6867231638418079, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 106, "misses": 99, "false_alarms": 61, "correct_negative": 442 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 204, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 502 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 24, "misses": 56, "false_alarms": 13, "correct_negative": 615 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 80, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 628 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.582295081967213, "seasonal_mae": 2.4497377049180327, "mae_skill": 0.3540961227029993, "bias": -0.35344262295081963, "unflagged_observations": 138, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 7.768231886597281, "seasonal_mae": 7.301824557846639, "mae_skill": -0.0638754499037415, "bias": -6.12673625384578, "unflagged_observations": 138, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 38, "misses": 212, "false_alarms": 23, "correct_negative": 642 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 243, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 639 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 708, "dates": 708, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.8466101694915253, "seasonal_mae": 1.6981638418079097, "mae_skill": -0.08741578640938186, "bias": -0.4759887005649717, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 97, "misses": 108, "false_alarms": 83, "correct_negative": 420 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 204, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 502 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 17, "misses": 63, "false_alarms": 27, "correct_negative": 601 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 80, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 628 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.7105792349726776, "seasonal_mae": 2.4497377049180327, "mae_skill": 0.30172963761036087, "bias": -0.3372677595628415, "unflagged_observations": 138, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 7.995103676659445, "seasonal_mae": 7.301824557846639, "mae_skill": -0.094946011551017, "bias": -6.079063841063321, "unflagged_observations": 138, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 38, "misses": 212, "false_alarms": 14, "correct_negative": 651 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 243, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 639 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 708, "dates": 708, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.6001412429378532, "seasonal_mae": 1.6981638418079097, "mae_skill": 0.05772269816185638, "bias": -1.1786723163841808, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 61, "misses": 144, "false_alarms": 43, "correct_negative": 460 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 204, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 502 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 6, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 2, "correct_negative": 626 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 80, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 628 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.963344262295082, "seasonal_mae": 2.4497377049180327, "mae_skill": 0.19854919228555745, "bias": -0.3239344262295082, "unflagged_observations": 138, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 8.29360632285115, "seasonal_mae": 7.301824557846639, "mae_skill": -0.13582656733908105, "bias": -6.417611313992292, "unflagged_observations": 138, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 40, "misses": 210, "false_alarms": 15, "correct_negative": 650 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 243, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 639 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 708, "dates": 708, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.6319209039548024, "seasonal_mae": 1.6981638418079097, "mae_skill": 0.03900856691341592, "bias": -1.353954802259887, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 50, "misses": 155, "false_alarms": 34, "correct_negative": 469 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 204, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 502 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 3, "misses": 77, "false_alarms": 2, "correct_negative": 626 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 80, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 628 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.1940109289617484, "seasonal_mae": 2.4497377049180327, "mae_skill": 0.10438945175350545, "bias": -0.3876502732240437, "unflagged_observations": 138, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 915, "dates": 915, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 8.608390931562402, "seasonal_mae": 7.301824557846639, "mae_skill": -0.1789369716246756, "bias": -6.458585141594035, "unflagged_observations": 138, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 36, "misses": 214, "false_alarms": 17, "correct_negative": 648 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 243, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 639 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 708, "dates": 708, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.7353107344632768, "seasonal_mae": 1.6981638418079097, "mae_skill": -0.021874740081510247, "bias": -1.2971751412429378, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 35, "misses": 170, "false_alarms": 46, "correct_negative": 457 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 204, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 502 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 80, "false_alarms": 6, "correct_negative": 622 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 80, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 628 } } }, "unit": "mm" } } ], "UKM00003225": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 890, "dates": 890, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.1133483146067416, "seasonal_mae": 2.392752808988764, "mae_skill": 0.5346998192106314, "bias": -0.6132359550561798, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 888, "dates": 888, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.5720950460851824, "seasonal_mae": 4.592898755147888, "mae_skill": 0.22225695872754692, "bias": -1.3023100498759663, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 33, "misses": 41, "false_alarms": 44, "correct_negative": 770 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 814 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 689, "dates": 689, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.9716981132075472, "seasonal_mae": 1.4217706821480407, "mae_skill": 0.31655777868517765, "bias": -0.48867924528301887, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 109, "misses": 58, "false_alarms": 31, "correct_negative": 491 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 167, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 522 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 25, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 6, "correct_negative": 618 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 624 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 890, "dates": 890, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.2412134831460675, "seasonal_mae": 2.392752808988764, "mae_skill": 0.4812612993355404, "bias": -0.6362696629213483, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 888, "dates": 888, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 3.812716841829993, "seasonal_mae": 4.592898755147888, "mae_skill": 0.16986699574934871, "bias": -1.585604932093946, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 23, "misses": 51, "false_alarms": 40, "correct_negative": 774 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 814 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 689, "dates": 689, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.0207547169811322, "seasonal_mae": 1.4217706821480407, "mae_skill": 0.28205389955083704, "bias": -0.5095791001451379, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 99, "misses": 68, "false_alarms": 34, "correct_negative": 488 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 167, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 522 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 21, "misses": 44, "false_alarms": 12, "correct_negative": 612 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 624 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 890, "dates": 890, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.3664044943820224, "seasonal_mae": 2.392752808988764, "mae_skill": 0.42894038646662447, "bias": -0.6894157303370786, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 888, "dates": 888, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.191333423702324, "seasonal_mae": 4.592898755147888, "mae_skill": 0.08743178390237216, "bias": -1.6739739919215, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 24, "misses": 50, "false_alarms": 46, "correct_negative": 768 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 814 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 689, "dates": 689, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.1847605224963715, "seasonal_mae": 1.4217706821480407, "mae_skill": 0.16670069416088207, "bias": -0.560377358490566, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 93, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 48, "correct_negative": 474 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 167, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 522 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 17, "misses": 48, "false_alarms": 10, "correct_negative": 614 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 624 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 890, "dates": 890, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.532494382022472, "seasonal_mae": 2.392752808988764, "mae_skill": 0.3595266605620906, "bias": -0.6128988764044944, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 888, "dates": 888, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.547631024101675, "seasonal_mae": 4.592898755147888, "mae_skill": 0.009856026326614531, "bias": -1.913739303049966, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 13, "misses": 61, "false_alarms": 45, "correct_negative": 769 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 814 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 689, "dates": 689, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.4490566037735848, "seasonal_mae": 1.4217706821480407, "mae_skill": -0.019191506737443742, "bias": -0.44644412191582006, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 70, "misses": 97, "false_alarms": 68, "correct_negative": 454 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 167, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 522 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 17, "misses": 48, "false_alarms": 19, "correct_negative": 605 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 624 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 890, "dates": 890, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.7468539325842696, "seasonal_mae": 2.392752808988764, "mae_skill": 0.26993965861332214, "bias": -0.6545842696629214, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 888, "dates": 888, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 5.008495319867098, "seasonal_mae": 4.592898755147888, "mae_skill": -0.09048676813382706, "bias": -1.7493698288838344, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 17, "misses": 57, "false_alarms": 44, "correct_negative": 770 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 814 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 689, "dates": 689, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.4201741654571842, "seasonal_mae": 1.4217706821480407, "mae_skill": 0.0011229073091059139, "bias": -0.958055152394775, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 46, "misses": 121, "false_alarms": 41, "correct_negative": 481 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 167, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 522 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 3, "misses": 62, "false_alarms": 8, "correct_negative": 616 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 624 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 890, "dates": 890, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.041123595505618, "seasonal_mae": 2.392752808988764, "mae_skill": 0.14695592965650028, "bias": -0.6524494382022472, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 888, "dates": 888, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 5.552614958486016, "seasonal_mae": 4.592898755147888, "mae_skill": -0.20895653366241596, "bias": -1.9160316589348885, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 19, "misses": 55, "false_alarms": 45, "correct_negative": 769 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 814 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 689, "dates": 689, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.4053701015965168, "seasonal_mae": 1.4217706821480407, "mae_skill": 0.01153532053899553, "bias": -1.130188679245283, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 33, "misses": 134, "false_alarms": 34, "correct_negative": 488 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 167, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 522 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 1, "misses": 64, "false_alarms": 3, "correct_negative": 621 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 624 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 890, "dates": 890, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.214337078651685, "seasonal_mae": 2.392752808988764, "mae_skill": 0.07456504895400451, "bias": -0.7402022471910112, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 888, "dates": 888, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 5.869589838705547, "seasonal_mae": 4.592898755147888, "mae_skill": -0.2779706567941862, "bias": -2.100301805069027, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 14, "misses": 60, "false_alarms": 41, "correct_negative": 773 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 814 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 689, "dates": 689, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.5110304789550073, "seasonal_mae": 1.4217706821480407, "mae_skill": -0.06278072682727642, "bias": -1.1060957910014513, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 20, "misses": 147, "false_alarms": 38, "correct_negative": 484 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 167, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 522 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 5, "correct_negative": 619 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 624 } } }, "unit": "mm" } } ], "UKM00003227": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.1108510638297873, "seasonal_mae": 3.045471124620061, "mae_skill": 0.6352449199568846, "bias": 0.2087841945288754, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 15.800317332512416, "seasonal_mae": 10.458867025297339, "mae_skill": -0.5107102226556153, "bias": -15.754490734917418, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 36, "misses": 184, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 109 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 206, "misses": 14, "false_alarms": 92, "correct_negative": 17 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.1561398176291793, "seasonal_mae": 3.045471124620061, "mae_skill": 0.6203740668290152, "bias": 0.14495440729483286, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 15.833361437009698, "seasonal_mae": 10.458867025297339, "mae_skill": -0.5138696570778483, "bias": -15.754762702855666, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 33, "misses": 187, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 109 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 206, "misses": 14, "false_alarms": 92, "correct_negative": 17 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.3303647416413373, "seasonal_mae": 3.045471124620061, "mae_skill": 0.5631661942592519, "bias": 0.180516717325228, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.283672350765876, "seasonal_mae": 10.458867025297339, "mae_skill": -0.5569250771981147, "bias": -16.06297036887662, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 28, "misses": 192, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 109 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 206, "misses": 14, "false_alarms": 92, "correct_negative": 17 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.5887841945288754, "seasonal_mae": 3.045471124620061, "mae_skill": 0.4783125074853287, "bias": 0.17808510638297875, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.617445002982258, "seasonal_mae": 10.458867025297339, "mae_skill": -0.588837965220218, "bias": -16.32344766173483, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 30, "misses": 190, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 109 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 206, "misses": 14, "false_alarms": 92, "correct_negative": 17 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.831094224924012, "seasonal_mae": 3.045471124620061, "mae_skill": 0.3987484530320572, "bias": 0.06167173252279637, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.708622254280314, "seasonal_mae": 10.458867025297339, "mae_skill": -0.5975556639037869, "bias": -15.962206247755276, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 24, "misses": 196, "false_alarms": 4, "correct_negative": 105 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 206, "misses": 14, "false_alarms": 92, "correct_negative": 17 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.1796048632218845, "seasonal_mae": 3.045471124620061, "mae_skill": 0.28431274701584897, "bias": 0.15589665653495444, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.955773118164313, "seasonal_mae": 10.458867025297339, "mae_skill": -0.6211864131318059, "bias": -16.364242852472213, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 31, "misses": 189, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 109 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 206, "misses": 14, "false_alarms": 92, "correct_negative": 17 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.4104255319148935, "seasonal_mae": 3.045471124620061, "mae_skill": 0.20852129825541943, "bias": 0.03644376899696049, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 329, "dates": 329, "first": "2024-03-12", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.746969733573458, "seasonal_mae": 10.458867025297339, "mae_skill": -0.6012221680481067, "bias": -16.09533455352828, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 25, "misses": 195, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 108 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 206, "misses": 14, "false_alarms": 92, "correct_negative": 17 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } } ], "UKM00003072": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 901, "dates": 901, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.4287791342952276, "seasonal_mae": 2.798612652608213, "mae_skill": 0.4894687791239515, "bias": 0.8361043285238624, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 902, "dates": 902, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 15.664753978990742, "seasonal_mae": 10.523644466421002, "mae_skill": -0.48852938057476814, "bias": -15.607218588772648, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 54, "misses": 497, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 351 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 456, "misses": 95, "false_alarms": 252, "correct_negative": 99 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 901, "dates": 901, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.538790233074362, "seasonal_mae": 2.798612652608213, "mae_skill": 0.4501596240407686, "bias": 0.7574139844617093, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 902, "dates": 902, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 15.883611659453962, "seasonal_mae": 10.523644466421002, "mae_skill": -0.5093261379302219, "bias": -15.80345890894324, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 52, "misses": 499, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 351 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 456, "misses": 95, "false_alarms": 252, "correct_negative": 99 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 901, "dates": 901, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.6482463928967814, "seasonal_mae": 2.798612652608213, "mae_skill": 0.4110487596914596, "bias": 0.7432075471698114, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 902, "dates": 902, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.241124670395354, "seasonal_mae": 10.523644466421002, "mae_skill": -0.5432984953280939, "bias": -16.10155174964215, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 46, "misses": 505, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 351 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 456, "misses": 95, "false_alarms": 252, "correct_negative": 99 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 901, "dates": 901, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.8571476137624863, "seasonal_mae": 2.798612652608213, "mae_skill": 0.3364041958319287, "bias": 0.7427635960044395, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 902, "dates": 902, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.554717346821125, "seasonal_mae": 10.523644466421002, "mae_skill": -0.5730973618164465, "bias": -16.278547473774278, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 44, "misses": 507, "false_alarms": 2, "correct_negative": 349 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 456, "misses": 95, "false_alarms": 252, "correct_negative": 99 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 901, "dates": 901, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.0324639289678137, "seasonal_mae": 2.798612652608213, "mae_skill": 0.2737601871864527, "bias": 0.6879356270810211, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 902, "dates": 902, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.292187329213913, "seasonal_mae": 10.523644466421002, "mae_skill": -0.548150679282188, "bias": -15.886612427650682, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 46, "misses": 505, "false_alarms": 3, "correct_negative": 348 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 456, "misses": 95, "false_alarms": 252, "correct_negative": 99 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 901, "dates": 901, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.2446059933407323, "seasonal_mae": 2.798612652608213, "mae_skill": 0.19795760544109786, "bias": 0.6840510543840178, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 902, "dates": 902, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.766779899301692, "seasonal_mae": 10.523644466421002, "mae_skill": -0.5932484181503259, "bias": -16.213844959516088, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 38, "misses": 513, "false_alarms": 5, "correct_negative": 346 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 456, "misses": 95, "false_alarms": 252, "correct_negative": 99 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 901, "dates": 901, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.409289678135405, "seasonal_mae": 2.798612652608213, "mae_skill": 0.13911284725664774, "bias": 0.5694006659267481, "unflagged_observations": 127, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 902, "dates": 902, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 16.890431388796266, "seasonal_mae": 10.523644466421002, "mae_skill": -0.6049982914845233, "bias": -16.21820971325677, "unflagged_observations": 127, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 37, "misses": 514, "false_alarms": 6, "correct_negative": 345 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 456, "misses": 95, "false_alarms": 252, "correct_negative": 99 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } } ] }, "season_results": { "DJF": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.1705052878965923, "seasonal_mae": 2.4119858989424205, "mae_skill": 0.5147130468673877, "bias": -0.48942420681551113, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 4.842664783708378, "seasonal_mae": 5.325143815923366, "mae_skill": 0.09060394402349625, "bias": -0.7024137673031281, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 34, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 40, "correct_negative": 699 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 105, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 713 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 719, "dates": 212, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.0479833101529903, "seasonal_mae": 1.5948539638386647, "mae_skill": 0.34289700880788343, "bias": -0.45577190542420026, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 118, "misses": 81, "false_alarms": 32, "correct_negative": 488 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 199, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 520 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 39, "misses": 36, "false_alarms": 9, "correct_negative": 635 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 75, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 644 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.2866039952996475, "seasonal_mae": 2.4119858989424205, "mae_skill": 0.4665789730098411, "bias": -0.5338425381903643, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 5.0325809377673965, "seasonal_mae": 5.325143815923366, "mae_skill": 0.0549399017696276, "bias": -0.979757067161496, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 27, "misses": 85, "false_alarms": 41, "correct_negative": 698 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 105, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 713 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 719, "dates": 212, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.2132127955493741, "seasonal_mae": 1.5948539638386647, "mae_skill": 0.2392953693206593, "bias": -0.3956884561891516, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 123, "misses": 76, "false_alarms": 46, "correct_negative": 474 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 199, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 520 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 31, "misses": 44, "false_alarms": 21, "correct_negative": 623 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 75, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 644 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.4071680376028202, "seasonal_mae": 2.4119858989424205, "mae_skill": 0.41659358861931206, "bias": -0.5954171562867215, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 5.132441348739053, "seasonal_mae": 5.325143815923366, "mae_skill": 0.036187279413579354, "bias": -0.8885710272402868, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 34, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 44, "correct_negative": 695 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 105, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 713 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 719, "dates": 212, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.3680111265646733, "seasonal_mae": 1.5948539638386647, "mae_skill": 0.14223423737682028, "bias": -0.3182197496522948, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 111, "misses": 88, "false_alarms": 61, "correct_negative": 459 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 199, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 520 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 31, "misses": 44, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 618 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 75, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 644 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.536780258519389, "seasonal_mae": 2.4119858989424205, "mae_skill": 0.36285686446458143, "bias": -0.5680376028202115, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 5.518293144646642, "seasonal_mae": 5.325143815923366, "mae_skill": -0.036271194807117935, "bias": -1.4727242025556604, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 23, "misses": 89, "false_alarms": 35, "correct_negative": 704 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 105, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 713 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 719, "dates": 212, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.6748261474269819, "seasonal_mae": 1.5948539638386647, "mae_skill": -0.05014389116595441, "bias": -0.537413073713491, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 83, "misses": 116, "false_alarms": 88, "correct_negative": 432 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 199, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 520 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 16, "misses": 59, "false_alarms": 22, "correct_negative": 622 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 75, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 644 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.7338425381903644, "seasonal_mae": 2.4119858989424205, "mae_skill": 0.28115560752216695, "bias": -0.5488836662749706, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 6.100685159779046, "seasonal_mae": 5.325143815923366, "mae_skill": -0.1456376335859022, "bias": -1.3438177915514489, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 18, "misses": 94, "false_alarms": 35, "correct_negative": 704 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 105, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 713 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 719, "dates": 212, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.5660639777468706, "seasonal_mae": 1.5948539638386647, "mae_skill": 0.01805180081974367, "bias": -0.8678720445062587, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 71, "misses": 128, "false_alarms": 55, "correct_negative": 465 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 199, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 520 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 10, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 16, "correct_negative": 628 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 75, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 644 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.9569917743830787, "seasonal_mae": 2.4119858989424205, "mae_skill": 0.18863879957127538, "bias": -0.6822561692126909, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 6.061729347970678, "seasonal_mae": 5.325143815923366, "mae_skill": -0.13832218574919186, "bias": -1.666714682411101, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 21, "misses": 91, "false_alarms": 34, "correct_negative": 705 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 105, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 713 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 719, "dates": 212, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.5130737134909598, "seasonal_mae": 1.5948539638386647, "mae_skill": 0.051277579140141194, "bias": -1.1726008344923504, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 64, "misses": 135, "false_alarms": 44, "correct_negative": 476 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 199, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 520 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 6, "misses": 69, "false_alarms": 3, "correct_negative": 641 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 75, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 644 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 2.135957696827262, "seasonal_mae": 2.4119858989424205, "mae_skill": 0.1144402221572639, "bias": -0.9782608695652174, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 851, "dates": 215, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 6.748765821138923, "seasonal_mae": 5.325143815923366, "mae_skill": -0.26733963521484805, "bias": -1.583572150191215, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 21, "misses": 91, "false_alarms": 47, "correct_negative": 692 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 105, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 713 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 719, "dates": 212, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-02-28", "forecast_mae": 1.6812239221140473, "seasonal_mae": 1.5948539638386647, "mae_skill": -0.054155402459230784, "bias": -1.0831710709318498, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 51, "misses": 148, "false_alarms": 48, "correct_negative": 472 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 199, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 520 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 75, "false_alarms": 13, "correct_negative": 631 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 75, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 644 } } }, "unit": "mm" } } ], "MAM": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 1063, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 1.2941956726246473, "seasonal_mae": 2.8196989651928503, "mae_skill": 0.5410163678461568, "bias": -0.6676105362182502, "unflagged_observations": 239, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 1057, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 4.129718771691672, "seasonal_mae": 4.0621450954317355, "mae_skill": -0.016634973560134325, "bias": -1.0277632364195308, "unflagged_observations": 239, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 28, "misses": 60, "false_alarms": 34, "correct_negative": 935 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 88, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 969 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 754, "dates": 209, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.7226790450928382, "seasonal_mae": 0.8655172413793103, "mae_skill": 0.165032178976402, "bias": -0.2057029177718833, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 87, "misses": 45, "false_alarms": 49, "correct_negative": 573 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 132, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 622 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 12, "misses": 28, "false_alarms": 12, "correct_negative": 702 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 714 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 1063, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 1.474101599247413, "seasonal_mae": 2.8196989651928503, "mae_skill": 0.4772131289743573, "bias": -0.831862652869238, "unflagged_observations": 239, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 1057, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 4.34837559070754, "seasonal_mae": 4.0621450954317355, "mae_skill": -0.07046289301622854, "bias": -1.2238602249020152, "unflagged_observations": 239, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 20, "misses": 68, "false_alarms": 33, "correct_negative": 936 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 88, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 969 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 754, "dates": 209, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.789920424403183, "seasonal_mae": 0.8655172413793103, "mae_skill": 0.08734293594851361, "bias": -0.18726790450928382, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 81, "misses": 51, "false_alarms": 59, "correct_negative": 563 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 132, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 622 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 11, "misses": 29, "false_alarms": 12, "correct_negative": 702 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 714 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 1063, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 1.5810818438381937, "seasonal_mae": 2.8196989651928503, "mae_skill": 0.4392728219020865, "bias": -0.88689557855127, "unflagged_observations": 239, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 1057, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 4.539562747404148, "seasonal_mae": 4.0621450954317355, "mae_skill": -0.11752845867305761, "bias": -1.3846572158894872, "unflagged_observations": 239, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 17, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 32, "correct_negative": 937 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 88, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 969 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 754, "dates": 209, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.9022546419098143, "seasonal_mae": 0.8655172413793103, "mae_skill": -0.042445602206558464, "bias": -0.27413793103448275, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 65, "misses": 67, "false_alarms": 69, "correct_negative": 553 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 132, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 622 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 7, "misses": 33, "false_alarms": 9, "correct_negative": 705 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 714 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 1063, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 1.8382408278457196, "seasonal_mae": 2.8196989651928503, "mae_skill": 0.3480719571353267, "bias": -0.8075917215428033, "unflagged_observations": 239, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 1057, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 4.690074487322929, "seasonal_mae": 4.0621450954317355, "mae_skill": -0.1545807392742713, "bias": -1.4929274719952923, "unflagged_observations": 239, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 18, "misses": 70, "false_alarms": 44, "correct_negative": 925 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 88, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 969 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 754, "dates": 209, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.9592838196286472, "seasonal_mae": 0.8655172413793103, "mae_skill": -0.10833588722034948, "bias": -0.2770557029177719, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 49, "misses": 83, "false_alarms": 76, "correct_negative": 546 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 132, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 622 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 9, "misses": 31, "false_alarms": 11, "correct_negative": 703 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 714 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 1063, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 1.964016933207902, "seasonal_mae": 2.8196989651928503, "mae_skill": 0.30346573962246526, "bias": -0.7626246472248354, "unflagged_observations": 239, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 1057, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 4.885600072968264, "seasonal_mae": 4.0621450954317355, "mae_skill": -0.20271431920602256, "bias": -1.185025995043893, "unflagged_observations": 239, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 23, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 42, "correct_negative": 927 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 88, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 969 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 754, "dates": 209, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.8942970822281168, "seasonal_mae": 0.8655172413793103, "mae_skill": -0.03325160894882018, "bias": -0.6515915119363395, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 17, "misses": 115, "false_alarms": 29, "correct_negative": 593 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 132, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 622 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 714 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 714 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 1063, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 2.271975540921919, "seasonal_mae": 2.8196989651928503, "mae_skill": 0.19424890069194678, "bias": -0.7759830667920978, "unflagged_observations": 239, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 1057, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 5.382043323110948, "seasonal_mae": 4.0621450954317355, "mae_skill": -0.32492641121154486, "bias": -1.7101240393162223, "unflagged_observations": 239, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 21, "misses": 67, "false_alarms": 34, "correct_negative": 935 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 88, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 969 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 754, "dates": 209, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.8763925729442971, "seasonal_mae": 0.8655172413793103, "mae_skill": -0.012565124118909088, "bias": -0.6668435013262599, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 19, "misses": 113, "false_alarms": 27, "correct_negative": 595 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 132, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 622 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 713 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 714 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 1063, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 2.59859830667921, "seasonal_mae": 2.8196989651928503, "mae_skill": 0.07841285940200304, "bias": -0.9026058325493885, "unflagged_observations": 239, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 1057, "dates": 270, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-05-31", "forecast_mae": 5.392138106567256, "seasonal_mae": 4.0621450954317355, "mae_skill": -0.32741149808538905, "bias": -1.528650730851156, "unflagged_observations": 239, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 18, "misses": 70, "false_alarms": 31, "correct_negative": 938 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 88, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 969 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 754, "dates": 209, "first": "2024-03-01", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.9356763925729443, "seasonal_mae": 0.8655172413793103, "mae_skill": -0.08106037388905918, "bias": -0.6354111405835544, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 11, "misses": 121, "false_alarms": 41, "correct_negative": 581 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 132, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 622 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 714 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 40, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 714 } } }, "unit": "mm" } } ], "JJA": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 994, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.2869014084507042, "seasonal_mae": 2.6837223340040244, "mae_skill": 0.5204789287829601, "bias": -0.6590945674044265, "unflagged_observations": 292, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 992, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.489567217862314, "seasonal_mae": 3.581691289876043, "mae_skill": -0.2534768785217365, "bias": -0.5476885953883549, "unflagged_observations": 293, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 15, "misses": 63, "false_alarms": 39, "correct_negative": 875 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 914 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 623, "dates": 180, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2025-08-29", "forecast_mae": 0.7703049759229534, "seasonal_mae": 0.9983948635634029, "mae_skill": 0.22845659163987142, "bias": -0.11926163723916533, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 92, "misses": 44, "false_alarms": 50, "correct_negative": 437 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 136, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 487 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 14, "misses": 23, "false_alarms": 9, "correct_negative": 577 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 586 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 994, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.3743460764587525, "seasonal_mae": 2.6837223340040244, "mae_skill": 0.4878955773311042, "bias": -0.5586921529175051, "unflagged_observations": 292, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 992, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.590139151962778, "seasonal_mae": 3.581691289876043, "mae_skill": -0.28155633204268593, "bias": -0.6044688936091996, "unflagged_observations": 293, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 8, "misses": 70, "false_alarms": 31, "correct_negative": 883 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 914 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 623, "dates": 180, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2025-08-29", "forecast_mae": 0.8902086677367577, "seasonal_mae": 0.9983948635634029, "mae_skill": 0.10836012861736333, "bias": -0.22504012841091492, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 77, "misses": 59, "false_alarms": 50, "correct_negative": 437 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 136, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 487 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 11, "misses": 26, "false_alarms": 9, "correct_negative": 577 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 586 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 994, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.5325352112676056, "seasonal_mae": 2.6837223340040244, "mae_skill": 0.42895164978520184, "bias": -0.565533199195171, "unflagged_observations": 292, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 992, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.745935450774461, "seasonal_mae": 3.581691289876043, "mae_skill": -0.325054301633771, "bias": -0.7572886239676845, "unflagged_observations": 293, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 6, "misses": 72, "false_alarms": 35, "correct_negative": 879 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 914 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 623, "dates": 180, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2025-08-29", "forecast_mae": 1.0088282504012842, "seasonal_mae": 0.9983948635634029, "mae_skill": -0.010450160771704242, "bias": -0.32792937399678973, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 57, "misses": 79, "false_alarms": 64, "correct_negative": 423 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 136, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 487 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 7, "misses": 30, "false_alarms": 7, "correct_negative": 579 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 586 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 994, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.7225352112676056, "seasonal_mae": 2.6837223340040244, "mae_skill": 0.35815445978062854, "bias": -0.5063782696177063, "unflagged_observations": 292, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 992, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 4.857489118486343, "seasonal_mae": 3.581691289876043, "mae_skill": -0.35619983001227706, "bias": -0.9450604838902319, "unflagged_observations": 293, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 4, "misses": 74, "false_alarms": 25, "correct_negative": 889 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 914 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 623, "dates": 180, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2025-08-29", "forecast_mae": 1.169502407704655, "seasonal_mae": 0.9983948635634029, "mae_skill": -0.17138263665594855, "bias": -0.0712680577849117, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 63, "misses": 73, "false_alarms": 63, "correct_negative": 424 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 136, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 487 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 9, "misses": 28, "false_alarms": 18, "correct_negative": 568 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 586 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 994, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 1.947927565392354, "seasonal_mae": 2.6837223340040244, "mae_skill": 0.27416948440932376, "bias": -0.5594969818913481, "unflagged_observations": 292, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 992, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 5.090743846364189, "seasonal_mae": 3.581691289876043, "mae_skill": -0.42132401548777043, "bias": -0.9627394965213447, "unflagged_observations": 293, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 7, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 19, "correct_negative": 895 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 914 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 623, "dates": 180, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2025-08-29", "forecast_mae": 1.0298555377207064, "seasonal_mae": 0.9983948635634029, "mae_skill": -0.03151125401929278, "bias": -0.6449438202247191, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 31, "misses": 105, "false_alarms": 35, "correct_negative": 452 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 136, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 487 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 2, "correct_negative": 584 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 586 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 994, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.275291750503018, "seasonal_mae": 2.6837223340040244, "mae_skill": 0.15218809275683953, "bias": -0.5124144869215291, "unflagged_observations": 292, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 992, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 5.459049092925372, "seasonal_mae": 3.581691289876043, "mae_skill": -0.5241539962854536, "bias": -0.9136937663266119, "unflagged_observations": 293, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 6, "misses": 72, "false_alarms": 25, "correct_negative": 889 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 914 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 623, "dates": 180, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2025-08-29", "forecast_mae": 1.0202247191011236, "seasonal_mae": 0.9983948635634029, "mae_skill": -0.021864951768488794, "bias": -0.7537720706260032, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 16, "misses": 120, "false_alarms": 25, "correct_negative": 462 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 136, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 487 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 3, "correct_negative": 583 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 586 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 994, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 2.404466800804829, "seasonal_mae": 2.6837223340040244, "mae_skill": 0.10405530023016785, "bias": -0.5740845070422536, "unflagged_observations": 292, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 992, "dates": 262, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2026-08-31", "forecast_mae": 5.562800543328114, "seasonal_mae": 3.581691289876043, "mae_skill": -0.553121163471527, "bias": -0.7486971650232278, "unflagged_observations": 293, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 7, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 888 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 78, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 914 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 623, "dates": 180, "first": "2024-06-01", "last": "2025-08-29", "forecast_mae": 1.0712680577849116, "seasonal_mae": 0.9983948635634029, "mae_skill": -0.0729903536977492, "bias": -0.7739967897271268, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 8, "misses": 128, "false_alarms": 25, "correct_negative": 462 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 136, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 487 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 585 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 37, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 586 } } }, "unit": "mm" } } ], "SON": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 708, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.2415254237288136, "seasonal_mae": 2.273093220338983, "mae_skill": 0.4538167583185758, "bias": -0.2468926553672316, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 703, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 4.152714717967207, "seasonal_mae": 4.355184499284879, "mae_skill": 0.04648936947468407, "bias": -0.39077972408648803, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 12, "misses": 44, "false_alarms": 25, "correct_negative": 622 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 56, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 647 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 565, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.136637168141593, "seasonal_mae": 1.6690265486725664, "mae_skill": 0.31898197242841986, "bias": -0.68, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 105, "misses": 47, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 387 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 151, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 412 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 16, "misses": 49, "false_alarms": 9, "correct_negative": 491 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 500 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 708, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.4138418079096045, "seasonal_mae": 2.273093220338983, "mae_skill": 0.3780097554913474, "bias": -0.21666666666666662, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 703, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 4.318559838229302, "seasonal_mae": 4.355184499284879, "mae_skill": 0.00840943961423235, "bias": -0.5278596891841666, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 11, "misses": 45, "false_alarms": 22, "correct_negative": 625 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 56, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 647 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 565, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.2856637168141594, "seasonal_mae": 1.6690265486725664, "mae_skill": 0.2296924708377518, "bias": -0.6297345132743363, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 91, "misses": 61, "false_alarms": 28, "correct_negative": 385 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 151, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 412 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 16, "misses": 49, "false_alarms": 13, "correct_negative": 487 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 500 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 708, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.4864406779661017, "seasonal_mae": 2.273093220338983, "mae_skill": 0.34607139528381015, "bias": -0.28220338983050847, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 703, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 4.459521826479699, "seasonal_mae": 4.355184499284879, "mae_skill": -0.023957039526558033, "bias": -0.6391019264129233, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 13, "misses": 43, "false_alarms": 24, "correct_negative": 623 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 56, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 647 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 565, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.3660176991150443, "seasonal_mae": 1.6690265486725664, "mae_skill": 0.18154825026511134, "bias": -0.7132743362831858, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 92, "misses": 60, "false_alarms": 38, "correct_negative": 375 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 151, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 412 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 16, "misses": 49, "false_alarms": 13, "correct_negative": 487 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 500 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 708, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.7358757062146892, "seasonal_mae": 2.273093220338983, "mae_skill": 0.23633765184701894, "bias": -0.28107344632768355, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 703, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 4.98900432862115, "seasonal_mae": 4.355184499284879, "mae_skill": -0.1455322568860964, "bias": -0.1632677114475833, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 10, "misses": 46, "false_alarms": 43, "correct_negative": 604 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 56, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 647 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 565, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.7180530973451327, "seasonal_mae": 1.6690265486725664, "mae_skill": -0.029374337221633073, "bias": -0.2854867256637168, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 83, "misses": 69, "false_alarms": 54, "correct_negative": 359 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 151, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 412 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 18, "misses": 47, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 474 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 500 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 708, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.8494350282485876, "seasonal_mae": 2.273093220338983, "mae_skill": 0.18637959424612416, "bias": -0.22853107344632761, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 703, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 5.317639862402214, "seasonal_mae": 4.355184499284879, "mae_skill": -0.22099072112223284, "bias": -0.11121041736684933, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 10, "misses": 46, "false_alarms": 32, "correct_negative": 615 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 56, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 647 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 565, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.5541592920353982, "seasonal_mae": 1.6690265486725664, "mae_skill": 0.06882290562036064, "bias": -1.1817699115044247, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 50, "misses": 102, "false_alarms": 30, "correct_negative": 383 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 151, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 412 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 6, "misses": 59, "false_alarms": 2, "correct_negative": 498 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 500 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 708, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 2.049152542372881, "seasonal_mae": 2.273093220338983, "mae_skill": 0.09851803523161529, "bias": -0.22853107344632767, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 703, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 5.458538210928798, "seasonal_mae": 4.355184499284879, "mae_skill": -0.25334258785709074, "bias": -0.3163848869466616, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 15, "misses": 41, "false_alarms": 36, "correct_negative": 611 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 56, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 647 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 565, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.647079646017699, "seasonal_mae": 1.6690265486725664, "mae_skill": 0.013149522799575819, "bias": -1.390796460176991, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 25, "misses": 127, "false_alarms": 22, "correct_negative": 391 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 151, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 412 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 499 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 500 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 708, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 2.296045197740113, "seasonal_mae": 2.273093220338983, "mae_skill": -0.010097244229036573, "bias": -0.03389830508474573, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 703, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 5.631065502191475, "seasonal_mae": 4.355184499284879, "mae_skill": -0.2929568203404691, "bias": -1.142364862342562, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 6, "misses": 50, "false_alarms": 21, "correct_negative": 626 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 56, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 647 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 565, "dates": 179, "first": "2024-09-01", "last": "2025-11-30", "forecast_mae": 1.7350442477876107, "seasonal_mae": 1.6690265486725664, "mae_skill": -0.039554612937433786, "bias": -1.3587610619469026, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 17, "misses": 135, "false_alarms": 39, "correct_negative": 374 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 151, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 412 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 2, "correct_negative": 498 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 65, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 500 } } }, "unit": "mm" } } ] }, "quality_good_only": { "UK valleys and lower ground": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 3085, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.2344570502431118, "seasonal_mae": 2.4956239870340355, "mae_skill": 0.5053513443304325, "bias": -0.4981199351701783, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 3071, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 4.449427262818405, "seasonal_mae": 4.390870666100099, "mae_skill": -0.01333598759134369, "bias": -0.6898883428765068, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 75, "misses": 216, "false_alarms": 120, "correct_negative": 2660 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 284, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 2754 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 0.909620443442315, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.28053384062063424, "bias": -0.353739195791056, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 402, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 157, "correct_negative": 1885 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 81, "misses": 136, "false_alarms": 39, "correct_negative": 2405 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 3085, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.36677471636953, "seasonal_mae": 2.4956239870340355, "mae_skill": 0.4523314716196908, "bias": -0.5159481361426256, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 3071, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 4.629518480291152, "seasonal_mae": 4.390870666100099, "mae_skill": -0.05435090949809629, "bias": -0.8680711353784611, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 57, "misses": 234, "false_alarms": 116, "correct_negative": 2664 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 284, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 2754 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.033032694475761, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.18292066700353704, "bias": -0.34637354378053364, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 372, "misses": 247, "false_alarms": 183, "correct_negative": 1859 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 69, "misses": 148, "false_alarms": 55, "correct_negative": 2389 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 3085, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.4832414910858995, "seasonal_mae": 2.4956239870340355, "mae_skill": 0.40566307312638006, "bias": -0.579967585089141, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 3071, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 4.748780472836099, "seasonal_mae": 4.390870666100099, "mae_skill": -0.08151226350146401, "bias": -0.9095684523960245, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 66, "misses": 225, "false_alarms": 126, "correct_negative": 2654 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 284, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 2754 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.15152198421646, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.08920131973961898, "bias": -0.3918827508455468, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 325, "misses": 294, "false_alarms": 232, "correct_negative": 1810 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 61, "misses": 156, "false_alarms": 55, "correct_negative": 2389 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 3085, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.6824635332252835, "seasonal_mae": 2.4956239870340355, "mae_skill": 0.32583452396415125, "bias": -0.5361426256077796, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 3071, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 5.046815267129696, "seasonal_mae": 4.390870666100099, "mae_skill": -0.14938827647414987, "bias": -1.0087337102294645, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 52, "misses": 239, "false_alarms": 135, "correct_negative": 2645 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 284, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 2754 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.3629462608042089, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": -0.07802514639003655, "bias": -0.30101465614430667, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 278, "misses": 341, "false_alarms": 281, "correct_negative": 1761 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 52, "misses": 165, "false_alarms": 77, "correct_negative": 2367 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 3085, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.8369205834683955, "seasonal_mae": 2.4956239870340355, "mae_skill": 0.2639433692687362, "bias": -0.5234683954619125, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 3071, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 5.381634588532068, "seasonal_mae": 4.390870666100099, "mae_skill": -0.22564179129237472, "bias": -0.9080387987934814, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 53, "misses": 238, "false_alarms": 118, "correct_negative": 2662 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 284, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 2754 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.247651258925216, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.013167672324109092, "bias": -0.8210447200300639, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 169, "misses": 450, "false_alarms": 149, "correct_negative": 1893 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 16, "misses": 201, "false_alarms": 20, "correct_negative": 2424 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 3085, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 2.0900810372771477, "seasonal_mae": 2.4956239870340355, "mae_skill": 0.16250162358747877, "bias": -0.566256077795786, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 3071, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 5.605291797418198, "seasonal_mae": 4.390870666100099, "mae_skill": -0.27657866142450716, "bias": -1.1522079340832374, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 60, "misses": 231, "false_alarms": 114, "correct_negative": 2666 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 284, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 2754 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.2457346862081924, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": 0.014683589453972634, "bias": -0.9775648252536641, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 124, "misses": 495, "false_alarms": 118, "correct_negative": 1924 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 6, "misses": 211, "false_alarms": 8, "correct_negative": 2436 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 3085, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 2.327390599675851, "seasonal_mae": 2.4956239870340355, "mae_skill": 0.06741135212365235, "bias": -0.653743922204214, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 3071, "dates": 784, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 5.8923203698382585, "seasonal_mae": 4.390870666100099, "mae_skill": -0.34194805948855755, "bias": -1.286242009989887, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 47, "misses": 244, "false_alarms": 117, "correct_negative": 2663 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 7, "misses": 284, "false_alarms": 26, "correct_negative": 2754 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 2661, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-26", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.3385945133408492, "seasonal_mae": 1.2642991356632844, "mae_skill": -0.05876408168118186, "bias": -0.9424276587748966, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "1": { "forecast": { "hits": 87, "misses": 532, "false_alarms": 153, "correct_negative": 1889 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 1, "misses": 618, "false_alarms": 1, "correct_negative": 2041 } }, "5": { "forecast": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 16, "correct_negative": 2428 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 0, "misses": 217, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 2444 } } }, "unit": "mm" } } ], "UK high ground": [ { "lead": 1, "temperature": { "n": 976, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.3168032786885246, "seasonal_mae": 2.751690573770492, "mae_skill": 0.521456630610839, "bias": 0.6243852459016394, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 977, "dates": 777, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 16.574804981621778, "seasonal_mae": 10.981365244800429, "mae_skill": -0.5093574079479588, "bias": -16.523472216351685, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 80, "misses": 546, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 351 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 555, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 282, "correct_negative": 69 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 2, "temperature": { "n": 976, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.4177254098360657, "seasonal_mae": 2.751690573770492, "mae_skill": 0.4847802208031575, "bias": 0.5515368852459016, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 977, "dates": 777, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 16.79064529304068, "seasonal_mae": 10.981365244800429, "mae_skill": -0.5290125516033526, "bias": -16.71009726974889, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 73, "misses": 553, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 351 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 555, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 282, "correct_negative": 69 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 3, "temperature": { "n": 976, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.5308401639344262, "seasonal_mae": 2.751690573770492, "mae_skill": 0.44367285387150224, "bias": 0.5169057377049181, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 977, "dates": 777, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 17.200254200570555, "seasonal_mae": 10.981365244800429, "mae_skill": -0.566312914390559, "bias": -17.04726332745068, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 64, "misses": 562, "false_alarms": 0, "correct_negative": 351 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 555, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 282, "correct_negative": 69 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 4, "temperature": { "n": 976, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.7595286885245902, "seasonal_mae": 2.751690573770492, "mae_skill": 0.360564481596634, "bias": 0.515061475409836, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 977, "dates": 777, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 17.4955435287099, "seasonal_mae": 10.981365244800429, "mae_skill": -0.593202952337267, "bias": -17.212183001063742, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 65, "misses": 561, "false_alarms": 2, "correct_negative": 349 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 555, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 282, "correct_negative": 69 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 5, "temperature": { "n": 976, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 1.9084016393442622, "seasonal_mae": 2.751690573770492, "mae_skill": 0.30646212276357687, "bias": 0.42991803278688523, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 977, "dates": 777, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 17.346925785905178, "seasonal_mae": 10.981365244800429, "mae_skill": -0.5796693215462241, "bias": -16.84669462817948, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 62, "misses": 564, "false_alarms": 7, "correct_negative": 344 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 555, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 282, "correct_negative": 69 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 6, "temperature": { "n": 976, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 2.121516393442623, "seasonal_mae": 2.751690573770492, "mae_skill": 0.22901346042857407, "bias": 0.4354508196721312, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 977, "dates": 777, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 17.735630672609187, "seasonal_mae": 10.981365244800429, "mae_skill": -0.6150660939910761, "bias": -17.159384893698515, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 61, "misses": 565, "false_alarms": 5, "correct_negative": 346 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 555, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 282, "correct_negative": 69 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } }, { "lead": 7, "temperature": { "n": 976, "dates": 780, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 2.2914959016393444, "seasonal_mae": 2.751690573770492, "mae_skill": 0.1672407052296465, "bias": 0.2966188524590164, "unflagged_observations": 0, "unit": "°C" }, "wind": { "n": 977, "dates": 777, "first": "2024-01-25", "last": "2026-03-26", "forecast_mae": 17.85903995218359, "seasonal_mae": 10.981365244800429, "mae_skill": -0.6263041574579877, "bias": -17.239795541168885, "unflagged_observations": 0, "events": { "20": { "forecast": { "hits": 57, "misses": 569, "false_alarms": 7, "correct_negative": 344 }, "seasonal": { "hits": 555, "misses": 71, "false_alarms": 282, "correct_negative": 69 } } }, "unit": "mph" }, "rain": { "n": 0, "dates": 0, "unit": "mm" } } ] }, "exclusions": { "UKM00003212:temperature:model_coverage": 23, "UKM00003212:wind:model_coverage": 23, "UKM00003212:rain:model_coverage": 19, "UKM00003212:rain:observation": 260, "UKM00003212:temperature:observation": 51, "UKM00003212:wind:observation": 57, "UKM00003063:temperature:model_coverage": 21, "UKM00003063:wind:model_coverage": 18, "UKM00003063:rain:model_coverage": 18, "UKM00003063:temperature:observation": 42, "UKM00003063:wind:observation": 50, "UKM00003063:rain:observation": 387, "UKM00003305:temperature:model_coverage": 23, "UKM00003305:wind:model_coverage": 23, "UKM00003305:rain:model_coverage": 24, "UKM00003305:temperature:observation": 36, "UKM00003305:wind:observation": 36, "UKM00003305:rain:observation": 242, "UKM00003225:temperature:model_coverage": 23, "UKM00003225:wind:model_coverage": 23, "UKM00003225:rain:model_coverage": 22, "UKM00003225:temperature:observation": 61, "UKM00003225:wind:observation": 63, "UKM00003225:rain:observation": 263, "UKM00003227:temperature:observation": 645, "UKM00003227:wind:observation": 645, "UKM00003227:rain:observation": 974, "UKM00003072:temperature:model_coverage": 22, "UKM00003072:wind:observation": 57, "UKM00003072:rain:observation": 974, "UKM00003072:temperature:observation": 51, "UKM00003072:wind:model_coverage": 15 }, "model_coverage": { "temperature:incomplete": 144, "wind:incomplete": 144, "rain:incomplete": 150, "temperature:complete": 5700, "wind:complete": 5700, "rain:complete": 5694 }, "protocol_sha256": "09adca453e697506eae4307b1a147657ec4f9c77f29e268fc8c1c8adc53d64ea", "analysis_code_sha256": "8657907cec73567c0e144f526c2ba499b3e35db236662a6ea420a9bd03753c77", "observation_inventory_sha256": "d7ce70ad9d66dd39d5a35776e8adcc8cb55b599f1a45052eac431fd746bf2965", "pairs_sha256": "9defb760c7e3a8d786ce4661c5df89a4d19637141e51dac003f6f2ab82219346", "status": "exploratory_fixed_lead_model_study", "published_on": "2026-09-06", "report_sha256": "f364eb39aa7d609950edd0e9f9223deb16a3679e4d6baa711af391e5fa9aa658", "protocol": { "version": "uk-long-leads-v1", "fixed_on": "2026-09-06", "status": "exploratory protocol fixed before inspecting matched errors, not externally preregistered", "model": "GFS Global, fixed-lead archive", "requested_dates": [ "2024-01-01", "2026-08-31" ], "leads_days": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "station_panel": [ "UKM00003212", "UKM00003063", "UKM00003305", "UKM00003225", "UKM00003227", "UKM00003072" ], "groups": "Four valley/lower-ground sites pooled separately from Great Dun Fell and Cairnwell. Also report every station and season.", "measurement": { "temperature": "Station temperature report at exactly 12:00 UTC, compared with model 2 m temperature at that time", "wind": "Reported mean wind at exactly 12:00 UTC, compared with nominal model 10 m wind at that time; not gusts, walker wind or a daily average. Sensor heights and averaging definitions remain metadata limitations.", "rain": "Explicit six-hour liquid-equivalent precipitation total ending at 12:00 UTC, matched to model preceding-hour totals ending 07:00 through 12:00 UTC. Never fill missing hours/totals with zero. Do not substitute a 12-hour total. Includes melted snow where reported; gauge catch is not independently audited." }, "quality": "Accept source 220/221/222/223 observations only with quality code 1. Accept source 412 blank quality flag as unflagged/provisional, not certified good. Reject other or suspect codes, unsupported measurement codes, missing values, conflicting duplicate timestamps, and implausible values. Publish a quality-code-1-only sensitivity subset. No change to filters based on forecast performance.", "matching": "Require observed value, pre-2024 seasonal reference and all seven forecast leads for every station/date/variable. Report missing cases. Do not interpret station-days as independent weather dates.", "seasonal_reference": "2018-2023 station observations in the same measurement window, within 15 calendar days either side of the target date, median. Require 80 records spanning at least four years. This is not a 30-year climate normal. Station changes remain unaudited.", "statistics": "MAE, bias, seasonal-reference MAE and MAE skill. Report wet-event hits, misses, false alarms and correct negatives at 1 and 5 mm per six hours, and mean-wind events at 20 mph. Describe counts, not universal accuracy percentages.", "uncertainty": "2000 fixed-seed calendar-week block-bootstrap resamples jointly over sites and leads, for pooled MAE and paired difference from seasonal MAE. Pointwise 95% percentile intervals, not individual-day limits or simultaneous bands. No monotonic fit or smoothing.", "interpretation": "Underlying-model verification, not original Mountain Weather publication verification. Keep the previous Swiss single-run study separate because the valid windows, lead construction, sites and climate differ. Do not claim that Alpine weather is universally easier to predict." }, "source_documents": [ "https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/previous-runs-api", "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/global-historical-climatology-network-hourly", "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/doc/ghcnh_DOCUMENTATION.pdf", "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/doc/ghcnh-source-list.pdf" ], "observation_inputs": [ { "station": "UKM00003212", "year": 2018, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2018/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003212_2018.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:32:47.405983+00:00", "bytes": 6952263, "sha256": "ca341702d06b2eab12ec7cb2de45b5c2b895dc864db3b578f378e0a58d7b9058" }, { "station": "UKM00003212", "year": 2019, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2019/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003212_2019.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:32:51.119227+00:00", "bytes": 6997552, "sha256": "de4eaec505d028aac18fb63f62ddaa7106ce95aaec4e57271de8cbf577b0fd81" }, { "station": "UKM00003212", "year": 2020, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2020/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003212_2020.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:33:09.143830+00:00", "bytes": 7047849, "sha256": "650cd3b867f29a2030cdeae12aa8a13c8b7c6d19eb15a262dcd8a0904a38f045" }, { "station": "UKM00003212", "year": 2021, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2021/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003212_2021.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:33:19.135687+00:00", "bytes": 7042943, "sha256": "8f1d1d9a734945e4ec529a3002abaf5e56f788e07f4a2cfc81d574f6ffa920b7" }, { "station": "UKM00003212", "year": 2022, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2022/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003212_2022.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:33:25.517839+00:00", "bytes": 7508489, "sha256": "83869f68e058f600f6a74c2b955ae3c08fd8ea50b2c9498193ae1c3b00c088e0" }, { "station": "UKM00003212", "year": 2023, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2023/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003212_2023.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:33:42.718121+00:00", "bytes": 7498135, "sha256": "f21f79491c0bcd433be34dc97fd84b5c48a15091fdb1a1bfa73d878c1ef30fba" }, { "station": "UKM00003212", "year": 2024, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2024/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003212_2024.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:34:04.814645+00:00", "bytes": 7589413, "sha256": "5f4637d5619d9a77e62b116d98ef8c4e19af69406b62b628d12d81195351111a" }, { "station": "UKM00003212", "year": 2025, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2025/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003212_2025.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:34:14.372698+00:00", "bytes": 7400126, "sha256": "7de51d04e20a8001d5886a94cdd234d7f1893087380a5a645a589227e28da094" }, { "station": "UKM00003212", "year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2026/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003212_2026.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:34:14.639988+00:00", "bytes": 4330960, "sha256": "c303f48485d3fb89de75b33b63024f8d0f0dd49c725009f047dd31441963cab4" }, { "station": "UKM00003063", "year": 2018, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2018/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003063_2018.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:34:29.074762+00:00", "bytes": 7266138, "sha256": "bdf9b40952fea54c522f191657b4de411c36a3b7b07ed75246bca67e411c9c90" }, { "station": "UKM00003063", "year": 2019, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2019/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003063_2019.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:34:38.369886+00:00", "bytes": 7298602, "sha256": "f3626b4b5fab28aae0d426b19ca5f8c7ba0df0a0c23e5c4080b9d5e2d84db6b2" }, { "station": "UKM00003063", "year": 2020, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2020/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003063_2020.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:34:44.304114+00:00", "bytes": 7310158, "sha256": "3e04d7572a275519977221a62a123dd560ec977cf75b4290c97885bac2b57be4" }, { "station": "UKM00003063", "year": 2021, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2021/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003063_2021.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:34:58.781922+00:00", "bytes": 7204017, "sha256": "7307520b26822d77ced1b6143bbc5d3060b5bafa026557ddfc769d3709795609" }, { "station": "UKM00003063", "year": 2022, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2022/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003063_2022.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:35:09.864769+00:00", "bytes": 7695815, "sha256": "c428680c60dc5a0caf655078060fb4267ffa5776a3f60c3aa8d280ce56f27bfc" }, { "station": "UKM00003063", "year": 2023, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2023/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003063_2023.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:35:18.565772+00:00", "bytes": 7730488, "sha256": "96b65c353e9e1353878ea731a45fcf06a4cae78a55a528acfadb9f5dea10dac7" }, { "station": "UKM00003063", "year": 2024, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2024/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003063_2024.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:35:26.810250+00:00", "bytes": 15087909, "sha256": "abb85d0b64b1dcce4b2140d3e1dfaf09bf21c72cbb1fd6c881a8a302df16d903" }, { "station": "UKM00003063", "year": 2025, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2025/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003063_2025.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:35:51.133734+00:00", "bytes": 31719607, "sha256": "65a6665f1dbff0803f611ea3ad59c554035b442abcdb0dcf292c9812b07db20a" }, { "station": "UKM00003063", "year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2026/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003063_2026.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:35:52.324419+00:00", "bytes": 19536184, "sha256": "fe33fa19c33e610416d26980854413fdca125800ce659a6629c28dd2bbd0905f" }, { "station": "UKM00003305", "year": 2018, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2018/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003305_2018.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:35:59.359506+00:00", "bytes": 6894740, "sha256": "08e8c8460c8a18152cce2e499bea1334370f12496c6efa5f64613f4298e3105c" }, { "station": "UKM00003305", "year": 2019, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2019/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003305_2019.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:36:05.860909+00:00", "bytes": 6922050, "sha256": "452358d12668f4d1cc44e58c632b7fe1222444493888a927ec712d3a66bc71e3" }, { "station": "UKM00003305", "year": 2020, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2020/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003305_2020.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:36:12.390078+00:00", "bytes": 6902348, "sha256": "947e8c12ce3dc6c8150a3275ce1816cf354b59f072966a679f96b1eb0ff90ca5" }, { "station": "UKM00003305", "year": 2021, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2021/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003305_2021.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:36:24.081868+00:00", "bytes": 6740661, "sha256": "30cec2cd91373f1b052188d55dcedf249c09803dc2eae31baa61000c632af72f" }, { "station": "UKM00003305", "year": 2022, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2022/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003305_2022.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:36:31.907069+00:00", "bytes": 7539116, "sha256": "1220c59176ef2cc3473c36b55636c8cadd839393d5fa8047dff80dfad4b46758" }, { "station": "UKM00003305", "year": 2023, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2023/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003305_2023.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:36:41.904171+00:00", "bytes": 7602474, "sha256": "b3d1a19fc3465623d71d4313a8deb56cef02a1d2df79a0e1dce79c174f3faad0" }, { "station": "UKM00003305", "year": 2024, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2024/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003305_2024.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:36:48.684110+00:00", "bytes": 7644386, "sha256": "3c011a1ac477e16fe2c86a7b4c0583ec8faca742a5c5008ee9baf8631a6e6264" }, { "station": "UKM00003305", "year": 2025, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2025/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003305_2025.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:36:55.189315+00:00", "bytes": 7508962, "sha256": "f72f4c6b9c805640d43414c329f2b326e377fd5b89a19effc97834d1bfa1d855" }, { "station": "UKM00003305", "year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2026/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003305_2026.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:37:01.111163+00:00", "bytes": 4424009, "sha256": "cfa4a69cfdb364a744b0d9706621241c36685b8a11bd02ffce50ec1eb6574ceb" }, { "station": "UKM00003225", "year": 2018, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2018/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003225_2018.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:37:06.897815+00:00", "bytes": 7145950, "sha256": "50d30e8a542758bf0def3011d8b313743b8ce44615ac65332ead48b9b67a38f5" }, { "station": "UKM00003225", "year": 2019, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2019/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003225_2019.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:37:20.875456+00:00", "bytes": 7191107, "sha256": "35155c62cc91ce421700f18b5e4a933a05085bae8ea45c0523e159dc328f1ef8" }, { "station": "UKM00003225", "year": 2020, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2020/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003225_2020.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:37:26.946957+00:00", "bytes": 7310929, "sha256": "50dbf596af5e50c8898f472387c088ad82d16a3904ab386dbc9bb2c9ed8c8b7e" }, { "station": "UKM00003225", "year": 2021, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2021/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003225_2021.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:37:37.429398+00:00", "bytes": 7186187, "sha256": "15a11ec49bcf81a4e7bb66d62482dd118e63d5bb1233532ad98fdbb0d3cf7891" }, { "station": "UKM00003225", "year": 2022, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2022/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003225_2022.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:37:41.814257+00:00", "bytes": 7336637, "sha256": "b379832cbb2830fe5b24ae8645fe4690e403c94d361c3fb04ab4541690ef3a73" }, { "station": "UKM00003225", "year": 2023, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2023/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003225_2023.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:37:45.593393+00:00", "bytes": 7549524, "sha256": "3ed75085b7a2b5a6bd83db7a9d20e854a559059c26bcfd90cef076279ddbae77" }, { "station": "UKM00003225", "year": 2024, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2024/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003225_2024.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:37:49.883359+00:00", "bytes": 7653931, "sha256": "59c71908079d18302b8b5abeffc18f5fdaf08ea9d28f4696e803b5ea28375fba" }, { "station": "UKM00003225", "year": 2025, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2025/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003225_2025.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:37:59.641374+00:00", "bytes": 7495023, "sha256": "396602fef7386e8ee563ff2ff0395835514ca68d1a4f1fc862826066218a89d9" }, { "station": "UKM00003225", "year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2026/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003225_2026.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:10.607224+00:00", "bytes": 4355077, "sha256": "8b09bcc37a91037ce7f09a1ff2469cc2bba1e7e0fa20f909fd4e4e0617d9811f" }, { "station": "UKM00003227", "year": 2018, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2018/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003227_2018.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:16.956956+00:00", "bytes": 5170181, "sha256": "ece62fa41096093a675504c296f8a0a49855a875a0438c01016441ccf60c8b55" }, { "station": "UKM00003227", "year": 2019, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2019/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003227_2019.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:20.903593+00:00", "bytes": 5075412, "sha256": "9974daa60a74d88814afec3a7b613359a89693a2c93b319ee82aa6af2e718830" }, { "station": "UKM00003227", "year": 2020, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2020/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003227_2020.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:24.844230+00:00", "bytes": 5053485, "sha256": "73a3d9e2c40b0c4b20129992718955c99227ac02181f8c78da17452c3bc16cc2" }, { "station": "UKM00003227", "year": 2021, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2021/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003227_2021.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:34.337680+00:00", "bytes": 4760851, "sha256": "926714f4b640928aa6d7f2702bd1209b1b598cb0d43c74fcc3cfa1272934d871" }, { "station": "UKM00003227", "year": 2022, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2022/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003227_2022.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:38.569243+00:00", "bytes": 4795666, "sha256": "da4a08490c7771ddccf1c8b501c9a623fc65137ab4a1c0ad9658077979a1f45b" }, { "station": "UKM00003227", "year": 2023, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2023/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003227_2023.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:41.191257+00:00", "bytes": 1098872, "sha256": "6f2fa2b15c18784cd0b64428dabcf3a0ec6ede9bf5d34bfbb8c52f49a2f17318" }, { "station": "UKM00003227", "year": 2024, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2024/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003227_2024.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:42.686242+00:00", "bytes": 582687, "sha256": "d54d30ee4d966bbc311d1738e92a0806b41c6b8bfb859080f87e23ec6037b611" }, { "station": "UKM00003227", "year": 2025, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2025/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003227_2025.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:44.586663+00:00", "bytes": 1095214, "sha256": "6872523b22f0aa5b2dc79320ac462e839e75a4888f2bbaa8136cc7db33f19d33" }, { "station": "UKM00003227", "year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2026/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003227_2026.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:44.660404+00:00", "bytes": 3409419, "sha256": "519a5bc3904abd745edf9ed5ca6ac8813c53ec81e5cb4dbc4c914bcb397ae213" }, { "station": "UKM00003072", "year": 2018, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2018/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003072_2018.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:38:51.782311+00:00", "bytes": 4498741, "sha256": "bd912571f0e2c951157a53fe1407d65c66d330b342d55cb86ba1605f08cbec35" }, { "station": "UKM00003072", "year": 2019, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2019/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003072_2019.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:39:13.460811+00:00", "bytes": 2522209, "sha256": "ee20c30ec78a67a575b18c174d57118af91c1317f026a4ce85436c51dc8c01a2" }, { "station": "UKM00003072", "year": 2020, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2020/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003072_2020.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:39:28.337191+00:00", "bytes": 4719758, "sha256": "7370a503e53d276d857f84b66a9bfe4f24544e952890880fdd44b336c2617672" }, { "station": "UKM00003072", "year": 2021, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2021/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003072_2021.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:39:33.036423+00:00", "bytes": 4487582, "sha256": "6937441e8c4bf452a1909de1b9f4bd4ff242efd36b51919eb7c34bf61da30cc3" }, { "station": "UKM00003072", "year": 2022, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2022/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003072_2022.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:39:36.046073+00:00", "bytes": 3383848, "sha256": "162a6f125127b53c6dc5caa073d511fb0a2006070a46b0e3d4d3d0c09a125567" }, { "station": "UKM00003072", "year": 2023, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2023/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003072_2023.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:39:53.311410+00:00", "bytes": 4424106, "sha256": "8949b92ee78f5c7038f0f5adf9df968aaf9efe220e134bda338a285715806365" }, { "station": "UKM00003072", "year": 2024, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2024/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003072_2024.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:40:00.960019+00:00", "bytes": 4994762, "sha256": "901ea37ef294f88406e317246b34d362cd0cb262df8774c8c2bc6ce30f4a44eb" }, { "station": "UKM00003072", "year": 2025, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2025/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003072_2025.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:40:07.047594+00:00", "bytes": 4970344, "sha256": "f6a1a0921cae1b188bc6ec525c04a946bdcf8af841f5dc1dd202a0d684f6fe12" }, { "station": "UKM00003072", "year": 2026, "source_url": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/oa/global-historical-climatology-network/hourly/access/by-year/2026/psv/GHCNh_UKM00003072_2026.psv", "retrieved_utc": "2026-09-06T18:40:10.355003+00:00", "bytes": 3264101, "sha256": "2f6a50b38c5b4c5e2342559e91d49382f82ed206c5f083e197e7ffda10426b7d" } ], "model_inputs": [ { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:35:34.448865Z", "sha256": "5f72c0fdc300915c7f50764c7fedc24c13d5ad682c0153a3354ea3adf6d9cfb8" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:35:49.973320Z", "sha256": "f8bd2762a76970a26086591d223bb6c2a1e4bc26ef8eda89afdd89f0a4e0c950" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:35:56.446739Z", "sha256": "89e92d9810a07c6aa857349742dfa0c3f5530e31b26335f8c8281678b910e20a" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:36:08.416301Z", "sha256": "48b5e339836e5c9f5af32f2121a7aed3573379c21a9b28ffebd7c07a39537b7e" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:36:18.008259Z", "sha256": "7bc73d53c1d0eda5d0a3ec4fa14fdca9222f1f07e6f975cf8a77bbd0faa31eb1" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:36:27.210129Z", "sha256": "9b4ea16925153f89a948e156c2305245bbb56a76d45de7011b1f4a1696ac99ab" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:36:32.328433Z", "sha256": "6ec814df706e5f88ef2ea30fb8bafb247222696ea0ab92c7f4b74f31deb6ce6f" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:36:43.720265Z", "sha256": "39a9679ae25f8d224046ac249ee3d50356336b34ca88e1b19712224af8425cf9" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:36:48.906643Z", "sha256": "4c357533ec2730649920d11f6685f3e2b0543e9b876807cacdad75873119df76" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:36:58.566612Z", "sha256": "5b14547ed1b5b165ddb33816854bcda935a083808a4eac5ddb65b5f3db45cbf6" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:37:03.067430Z", "sha256": "ddd42c021d4afc969dae83d6167e3d1a7cf25d1f96c21ad914e9dd79fcdbb08a" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:37:13.156532Z", "sha256": "88a2370a27b24d60cf58bcbc19171d7cc2a046e92ff4399bd0f08e4119fc03bb" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:37:21.163702Z", "sha256": "4baae513e19cef024944572055d9d854421673b79263ee653042439db86e6b57" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:37:34.723149Z", "sha256": "ec861f169928cee2183b9fa2399afa499e2c9e81bda0f1c819fc85f5c9495202" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:37:41.849466Z", "sha256": "6759727e5b5208a1f69b4a1dfb8ed0b796674b428099a37cd6f2842e1fac16a5" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:37:50.714140Z", "sha256": "7fe9ab5bbfc8ba7e0be1beddbdad09e1396b1e505902128968232a8599d11139" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:37:57.406305Z", "sha256": "468b58a9c867735e5d3e271883060feba2b3551eb7cbe46705790e49e5f13956" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:38:10.126531Z", "sha256": "f67a48e57aa6024f2e620ce8b4c9b879669da3e9c24f06c7ef0b175386591f7c" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:38:15.382195Z", "sha256": "23c14d8cbb1587042037b356b8fa57b722038091da6e46eda8c89f7c3eb5c116" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:38:22.647505Z", "sha256": "ffdc7966f7e957ae8a9fd02c7c52828913f4b441a994e208ca81cef046e1b282" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:38:30.056994Z", "sha256": "723317d7947eaaa2e4ddf5fd8abc0dbde5d3984d79329e5a586d418b8c30d573" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:38:38.284923Z", "sha256": "2e37574e787143bbcfe46b7f15e95663218f8e70962a206e4ed5d6d2b8801dc6" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:38:47.657854Z", "sha256": "58eb9c55f342b25457b20a7926ec21378a30ab5e62bc0933136610142d866a9b" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:38:55.637743Z", "sha256": "ffd8e193eaa371e8045afdb0d0611d689954234d94e5b39c96f95b972e849f53" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:39:07.265004Z", "sha256": "f33ac1e76fe37c55453e881f20e94fa9e4d63026b87b2c9b9652c195124e5f3c" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:39:14.286931Z", "sha256": "b4ef0fdd4ed9557a86fa91d7493c2cc1c25dc296509de7d9ecf3b04a140dfe77" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:39:22.939545Z", "sha256": "f393dc5fd2121199b0ec776813cb2fd9cdf6e86d8b57968f4de900305defde54" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:39:30.095264Z", "sha256": "c7613a50b5f06ab208093d0b25b310ca9c6e0f4673b7129070c0427d385d1157" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:39:39.574729Z", "sha256": "9363d6f4de9fec1ef155f9300b7cccdab15e2bda7ec13985ea64ec54d8671799" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:39:51.034137Z", "sha256": "b64fc933ecbc9bc6614ec4bd35cfeced0ef5175ae1d492eb576bb084136d61c3" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:40:05.125287Z", "sha256": "874f1de84ddebfb7914e02744b57c019e8f8051de4834859bb8b3589036601b8" }, { "fetched_at": "2026-09-06T18:40:12.397958Z", "sha256": "b065798abc16d3292f8a6accd4459543cfd3cb962a7675f21bc0e3985cc05fb3" } ], "limitations": [ "This tests GFS point extraction with provider elevation handling, not the complete Mountain Weather model blend, terrain corrections, walker winds or originally published reports.", "Noon wind and temperature are not daily averages. Wind sensor heights, averaging definitions and historical instrument changes remain unaudited. Reported station coordinates and elevations are consistent in this sample.", "The fixed-lead archive uses provider-defined offsets of 24 to 168 hours. It is not the same lead construction as the Swiss individual-run study. Model upgrades may contribute to differences over time.", "Source-412 observations with blank quality flags are provisional. The good-flag-only subset covers different dates and seasons, so it is a sensitivity check, not a paired quality experiment.", "Rain is the explicit six-hour total ending at noon UTC, including liquid-equivalent snow where reported. Its compatible record ends in March 2026. No high-ground rain curve is available.", "The seasonal median is a six-year reference, not a 30-year climate normal. A near-zero rain median can have modest absolute error while missing wet events.", "Pooled results weight available station-days equally. Distinct dates are not independent storms; nearby stations and successive days are correlated.", "Intervals use 2000 calendar-week bootstrap resamples with fixed seed 20260906, jointly across stations and leads. Pointwise sampling intervals do not describe an individual forecast day. Seasonal-reference uncertainty is not shaded; paired differences are in the data.", "This selected six-station study is not representative of every UK mountain or every weather model. Cloud clearance and gust lead-time skill are not measured here." ], "rainfall_evidence_status": { "status": "short_leads_only", "valid_leads": [ 1, 2, 3, 4 ], "excluded_leads": [ 5, 6, 7 ], "do_not_use_excluded_leads_for_current_rainfall_accuracy": true, "reason": "Includes pre-fix Open-Meteo GFS precipitation beyond forecast hour 120. Wind and temperature results are unchanged.", "replacement": "/assets/research/rain-category-postfix.json", "fix": "https://github.com/open-meteo/open-meteo/pull/1996" } }