Mountain Weather

Yr Elen weather forecast.

962 m summit in Eryri (Snowdonia). 7 forecast days covering wind, cloud, rain and temperature, updated 18 October 2026 at 15:31 UTC.

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Confidence: Medium
Overall hill weather38Poor
Summit wind · 08:00-17:0020-35 mph southeasterly Summit gusts · 08:00-17:0040-50 mph Feels like-6 to -2°C PrecipitationLittle or none Cloud-free summit estimate60% Cloud base through day600-1,600 m Freezing levelAbove summit DaylightSunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:11 · 10.4 hours daylight

The day on the hill

A poor day on the tops of Yr Elen, with strong, gusty winds.

Wind

On the summit expect a south-easterly wind of around 25–35 mph first thing, easing to 20–30 mph by mid-afternoon, with gusts of 40–50 mph at the windiest. Lower down on the open hillside it will be more like 5–15 mph. Gusts like that are strong enough to knock you off balance, so take care near edges and on narrow ridges.

Cloud and visibility

Cloud on the tops early should lift off them by early afternoon. The cloud base could be as low as 600–900 m around midday. The air should be clear, so expect far-reaching views whenever the tops come out of the cloud.

Rain and ground

It should stay dry.

Warmth and kit

On the tops it will be around 2 to 6°C, feeling like -6 to -2°C in the wind. The freezing level is above the summits. Take a hat, gloves, a windproof and a spare warm layer.

Daylight

Sunset is around 6:10pm, so allow time to get off the hill before dark, and carry a head torch.

Forecast confidence

There is some disagreement between forecast models on wind strength. Things could still change through the day, so keep an eye on the sky.

Sunshine context Model-grid estimate, not summit sunshine

The surrounding model grid indicates 5.3 h of sunshine. This is not a forecast of time in sunshine on the summit. Use the cloud and views outlook above for the conditions on this mountain.

Early
0 h
Midday
4 h
Later
Less than 1 hour

Overnight forecast: 17:00–08:00 (UK local time), in Wild camping below.

Morning · 08:00–12:00 Poor Summit winds around 25-35 mph. Gusts around 40-50 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can knock you off balance, so take care near edges and on narrow ridges.
19
Afternoon · 12:00–17:00 Mixed Summit winds around 25-35 mph in the early afternoon, easing to 20-30 mph later. Gusts around 40-50 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can make walking into it hard work, with buffeting on ridges and edges. Summit cloud is more persistent early in this period, with better prospects later.
57

Compare an early start with later conditions. The main forecast above covers the day in more detail.

Overnight · 17:00–08:00Wild campingBetaA mixed night to camp, mainly because of the wind: gusts of about 30 mph. 59Mixed · 600 m View detailsHide details
Night beginning Monday 19 October 2026

Full overnight outlook

A mixed night to camp, mainly because of the wind. Gusts reach about 30 mph on open ground, so peg out well and use the guylines. Look for shelter from the southeast. It should stay dry. Overnight lows of about 4°C at 900 m. A 3-season bag rated to about 4°C comfort, and a warm mat, should do. Allow more if you sleep cold.

Overnight rain0.0 mm Open ground · 600 m14 mph · gusts 27 mph Morning pack-upNo wet signal Sleeping-bag warmthISO comfort rating about 4°C or lower

Moon overnight

Waxing gibbous moon

Illuminated disc
63%
Moonrise
Outside this window
Moonset
00:27 next morning BST

Clear spells may allow a view of the Moon. Illumination describes the sunlit part of the Moon, not brightness at your pitch.

Overnight window: 19 Oct, 17:00 BST to 20 Oct, 08:00 BST. Approximate open-horizon times; hills can hide the Moon. Still take a headtorch.

Elevation reference (open ground)

300 m85 · promising
Wind / gust
12 mph / 23 mph
Typical / low
6.6°C / 6.2°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
600 m59 · mixed
Wind / gust
14 mph / 27 mph
Typical / low
6.6°C / 6.2°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
900 m59 · mixed
Wind / gust
17 mph / 32 mph
Typical / low
4.5°C / 4.1°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low

Warmth planning: As a broad starting point, consider a 3-season bag with an ISO/EN comfort rating at or below about 4°C. Allow more margin if you sleep cold or expect fatigue, and use an adequate insulated mat. Dampness is possible, so keep the sleep system dry and ensure its insulation remains effective if damp.

Open-hillside reference. A sheltered pitch may be calmer; cols and ridges may be much windier. Tent design and the exact pitch still matter. Read about sleeping-bag comfort ratings, pitching in strong winds or using the wild-camping forecast.

Did this match your night?Share a quick observation to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

Approximate height is enough, please do not share an exact wild-camp location.

Daytime · exposed rockClimbing & scramblingBetaVery poor conditions for exposed scrambling: gusts of 40–50 mph. Poor0 View detailsHide details
Generic exposed-rock guidance

Full climbing & scrambling outlook

Very poor conditions for exposed scrambling. The rock should be drying, but damp patches, shaded holds and drainage lines may still be wet. Gusts of 40–50 mph could throw you off balance on exposed moves and ridges. Cloud on the tops may make route-finding and retreat harder. The rock around the summit is mostly mudstone or slate, a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. On the usual routes up you may also cross basalt, which grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. These are general notes for each rock type, taken from geological maps around the summit, so the rock on your line may differ.

Rock surfaceDamp or dryingPeak gust40-50 mphRainPossible · 72%
Main factorsgusts of 40–50 mphdamp or incompletely dried rock possiblemuch of the route may be in cloud
Representative rock around the summit and along available routes Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup
Origin
Sedimentary
Broad rock-response group
Slate or mudstone
Mapping
BGS Geology 50K · 1:50,000
Summit area
Slate or mudstone in 71% of 17 BGS samples within 350 m
Rock-response profile
Moderate confidence
View the summit BGS record

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. These are general notes for each rock type, from geological map samples at and around the summit. The rock on your line can differ, and lichen, vegetation and seepage all change how it feels underfoot.

Rock groups along the sampled routes

These are mapped rock groups, not separate weather forecasts or a ranking of route safety.

Carneddau Aber Falls

volcanic rock

Geological detail and BGS records
Mapped variation

3 rock types appear in the mapped samples

Samples around the summit inform the main rock-response profile, with the summit pin shown separately where it differs. Route samples add further context, but this is not a continuous geological survey.

Summit-area sample Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds.

BGS record
Route sample Basalt Foel Grach Basalt Formation 932–1,053 m samples Seen on Peak Carneddau Aber Falls

Basalt is a dark volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. It is often blocky and shattered, with loose rubble on ledges.

BGS record
Summit-area sample Brecciated-porphyritic felsite Unnamed Igneous Intrusion, Ordovician

Rhyolite is a hard, fine-grained volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and gets slippery on smoother faces when wet. It is hard, but often cracked into sharp, blocky pieces, so some holds are loose.

BGS record

Generic exposed scrambling terrain; BGS summit-area bedrock samples are included where available, but route grade, exact rock, polish, drainage and escape options remain unresolved. Contains British Geological Survey materials © UKRI 2026. How to use the climbing and scrambling forecast.

Did this match your experience?Tell us about the rock surface and wind to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

A broad surface report is enough; you do not need to identify a particular route.

Overnight · Aurora, stars & meteorsAfter darkBetaNight-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. View forecastClose forecast

After dark: aurora and stargazing

Night-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. This does not mean clear skies or no aurora.

Explore the dedicated aurora forecast, meteor shower forecast or dark-sky and astrophotography forecast.

Recommended kit for this dayWeather-aware packing prompts, plus your core hillwalking kitView kit

For a day hillwalk, not a complete route-specific checklist. Carry navigation and backup you can use, warm and waterproof layers, suitable footwear, food and water, a headtorch, emergency shelter, first aid and a way to call for help. Snow, ice, technical terrain and overnight trips need additional equipment and skills.

Does the weather shape your plans?Optional hill-user research. One answer helps; further questions are up to you.Take part

Help the Mountain Decisions Project understand how forecasts influence hill days, including when plans stay the same. Findings will be shared publicly as summaries, not individual responses.

This is about Yr Elen on Monday 19 October 2026. It asks about intentions, not whether you actually went out. No name or account is needed.

Open the questions to take part.

About the research and your privacy · Already been out? Share that experience instead

Confidence: Medium
Overall hill weather72Good
Summit wind · 08:00-17:0010-20 mph southerly Summit gusts · 08:00-17:0015-25 mph Feels like-2 to 2°C PrecipitationAround 2-5 mm Cloud-free summit estimate90% Freezing levelAbove summit DaylightSunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:09 · 10.3 hours daylight

The day on the hill

A good day on Yr Elen, though expect drizzle clearing by early afternoon.

Wind

On the summit expect a southerly wind of 10–20 mph for most of the day, with gusts of 15–25 mph at the windiest. Lower down on the open hillside the wind will be light, under 10 mph.

Cloud and visibility

The tops should stay clear of cloud all day.

Rain and ground

Drizzle at first, clearing by early afternoon. Expect 2–5 mm in total. Some forecast models keep it drier in the morning.

Warmth and kit

On the tops it will be around 2 to 6°C, feeling like -2 to 2°C in the wind. The freezing level is above the summits. Take a hat, gloves, a windproof and a spare warm layer. Pack waterproofs too, and keep a warm layer dry in your pack.

Daylight

Sunset is around 6:10pm, so allow time to get off the hill before dark, and carry a head torch.

Forecast confidence

Some of the detail could still change, so have a last look at the forecast in the morning before you set off.

Sunshine context Model-grid estimate, not summit sunshine

The surrounding model grid indicates 0 h of sunshine. This is not a forecast of time in sunshine on the summit. Use the cloud and views outlook above for the conditions on this mountain.

Early
0 h
Midday
0 h
Later
0 h

Overnight forecast: 17:00–08:00 (UK local time), in Wild camping below.

Morning · 08:00–12:00 Mixed Summit winds around 10-20 mph. Gusts around 15-25 mph are possible on exposed ground. Rain is forecast during this period. Rain is possible during the morning, but forecast models disagree on whether it will fall.
69
Afternoon · 12:00–17:00 Good Rain eases compared with the morning. Summit winds around 10-20 mph. Gusts around 15-25 mph are possible on exposed ground. Some forecast models bring rain during the afternoon, while others keep it mostly dry.
76

Compare an early start with later conditions. The main forecast above covers the day in more detail.

Overnight · 17:00–08:00Wild campingBetaA mixed night to camp, mainly because of the rain: about 8 mm of rain. 59Mixed · 600 m View detailsHide details
Night beginning Tuesday 20 October 2026

Full overnight outlook

A mixed night to camp, mainly because of the rain. Light winds on open ground, gusting no more than about 20 mph. Dry to pitch, then about 8 mm of rain overnight and into the morning, so expect to pack a wet tent. Overnight lows of about 5°C at 900 m. A 3-season bag rated to about 4°C comfort, and a warm mat, should do. Allow more if you sleep cold.

Overnight rain7.8 mm Open ground · 600 m8 mph · gusts 16 mph Morning pack-upDampness possible Sleeping-bag warmthISO comfort rating about 4°C or lower

Moon overnight

Waxing gibbous moon

Illuminated disc
72%
Moonrise
Outside this window
Moonset
01:45 next morning BST

Clear spells may allow a view of the Moon. Illumination describes the sunlit part of the Moon, not brightness at your pitch.

Overnight window: 20 Oct, 17:00 BST to 21 Oct, 08:00 BST. Approximate open-horizon times; hills can hide the Moon. Still take a headtorch.

Elevation reference (open ground)

300 m59 · mixed
Wind / gust
7 mph / 13 mph
Typical / low
8.4°C / 7.5°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
600 m59 · mixed
Wind / gust
8 mph / 16 mph
Typical / low
7.8°C / 6.7°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
900 m59 · mixed
Wind / gust
9 mph / 19 mph
Typical / low
6.5°C / 4.9°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low

Warmth planning: As a broad starting point, consider a 3-season bag with an ISO/EN comfort rating at or below about 4°C. Allow more margin if you sleep cold or expect fatigue, and use an adequate insulated mat. Dampness is possible, so keep the sleep system dry and ensure its insulation remains effective if damp.

Open-hillside reference. A sheltered pitch may be calmer; cols and ridges may be much windier. Tent design and the exact pitch still matter. Read about sleeping-bag comfort ratings, pitching in strong winds or using the wild-camping forecast.

Did this match your night?Share a quick observation to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

Approximate height is enough, please do not share an exact wild-camp location.

Daytime · exposed rockClimbing & scramblingBetaPoor conditions for exposed scrambling: wet, slippery rock. Poor27 View detailsHide details
Generic exposed-rock guidance

Full climbing & scrambling outlook

Poor conditions for exposed scrambling. The rock is likely to be wet and slippery through the day. The rock around the summit is mostly mudstone or slate, a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. On the usual routes up you may also cross basalt, which grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. These are general notes for each rock type, taken from geological maps around the summit, so the rock on your line may differ.

Rock surfaceWet rock likelyPeak gust15-25 mphRain2.0 mm
Main concernwet rock likely
Representative rock around the summit and along available routes Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup
Origin
Sedimentary
Broad rock-response group
Slate or mudstone
Mapping
BGS Geology 50K · 1:50,000
Summit area
Slate or mudstone in 71% of 17 BGS samples within 350 m
Rock-response profile
Moderate confidence
View the summit BGS record

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. These are general notes for each rock type, from geological map samples at and around the summit. The rock on your line can differ, and lichen, vegetation and seepage all change how it feels underfoot.

Rock groups along the sampled routes

These are mapped rock groups, not separate weather forecasts or a ranking of route safety.

Carneddau Aber Falls

volcanic rock

Geological detail and BGS records
Mapped variation

3 rock types appear in the mapped samples

Samples around the summit inform the main rock-response profile, with the summit pin shown separately where it differs. Route samples add further context, but this is not a continuous geological survey.

Summit-area sample Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds.

BGS record
Route sample Basalt Foel Grach Basalt Formation 932–1,053 m samples Seen on Peak Carneddau Aber Falls

Basalt is a dark volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. It is often blocky and shattered, with loose rubble on ledges.

BGS record
Summit-area sample Brecciated-porphyritic felsite Unnamed Igneous Intrusion, Ordovician

Rhyolite is a hard, fine-grained volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and gets slippery on smoother faces when wet. It is hard, but often cracked into sharp, blocky pieces, so some holds are loose.

BGS record

Generic exposed scrambling terrain; BGS summit-area bedrock samples are included where available, but route grade, exact rock, polish, drainage and escape options remain unresolved. Contains British Geological Survey materials © UKRI 2026. How to use the climbing and scrambling forecast.

Did this match your experience?Tell us about the rock surface and wind to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

A broad surface report is enough; you do not need to identify a particular route.

Overnight · Aurora, stars & meteorsAfter darkBetaNight-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. View forecastClose forecast

After dark: aurora and stargazing

Night-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. This does not mean clear skies or no aurora.

Explore the dedicated aurora forecast, meteor shower forecast or dark-sky and astrophotography forecast.

Recommended kit for this dayWeather-aware packing prompts, plus your core hillwalking kitView kit

For a day hillwalk, not a complete route-specific checklist. Carry navigation and backup you can use, warm and waterproof layers, suitable footwear, food and water, a headtorch, emergency shelter, first aid and a way to call for help. Snow, ice, technical terrain and overnight trips need additional equipment and skills.

Does the weather shape your plans?Optional hill-user research. One answer helps; further questions are up to you.Take part

Help the Mountain Decisions Project understand how forecasts influence hill days, including when plans stay the same. Findings will be shared publicly as summaries, not individual responses.

This is about Yr Elen on Tuesday 20 October 2026. It asks about intentions, not whether you actually went out. No name or account is needed.

Open the questions to take part.

About the research and your privacy · Already been out? Share that experience instead

Confidence: Medium
Overall hill weather24Poor
Summit wind · 08:00-17:0010-30 mph northwesterly Summit gusts · 08:00-17:0035-45 mph Feels like-8 to -4°C PrecipitationAround 10-20 mm Cloud-free summit estimate60% Cloud base through day700-1,800 m Freezing level900-1,200 m DaylightSunrise 07:52 · Sunset 18:07 · 10.2 hours daylight

The day on the hill

A poor day on the tops of Yr Elen, with burns likely to be in spate and sleet or snow up high.

Things to watch

Burns and rivers are likely to be in spate through much of the day and into the evening, so unbridged crossings could be difficult or impossible. Timings are rough. Turn back if a crossing looks unsafe.

Wind

On the summit expect a north-westerly wind of 10–30 mph for most of the day, with gusts of 35–45 mph at the windiest. Lower down on the open hillside it will be more like 10–20 mph. Gusts like that are strong enough to make walking into it hard work, with buffeting on ridges and edges. If the windier forecast models are right, summit gusts could reach 55–65 mph.

Cloud and visibility

The tops are likely to drift in and out of cloud, with the best chance of a clear summit in the early afternoon. The cloud base could be as low as 600–900 m around midday. A few forecast models bring it lower still, to around 400–700 m. Visibility may drop briefly in showers. Mist or fog is possible in the valleys early on, clearing by about 7am.

Rain and ground

Sleet is possible on the tops, and it could turn to snow if it is a little colder. Heavy rain at first, clearing by mid-afternoon. Expect 10–20 mm in total, measured as melted water, so any snow would lie deeper. Totals are uncertain and could be higher.

Warmth and kit

On the tops it will be around -2 to 2°C, feeling like -8 to -4°C in the wind. The freezing level is close to summit height. Take a hat, gloves, a windproof and a spare warm layer. Pack waterproofs too, and keep a warm layer dry in your pack.

Daylight

Sunset is around 6:05pm, so allow time to get off the hill before dark, and carry a head torch.

Forecast confidence

It's still two days off and could change, so check again nearer the time.

Sunshine context Model-grid estimate, not summit sunshine

The surrounding model grid indicates 0 h of sunshine. This is not a forecast of time in sunshine on the summit. Use the cloud and views outlook above for the conditions on this mountain.

Early
0 h
Midday
0 h
Later
0 h

Overnight forecast: 17:00–08:00 (UK local time), in Wild camping below.

Morning · 08:00–12:00 Poor Summit winds around 10-20 mph early in the morning, strengthening to 25-35 mph later. Gusts around 35-45 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can make walking into it hard work, with buffeting on ridges and edges. Summit cloud becomes more persistent later. Rain is forecast during this period. Rain is forecast during the morning, but models differ considerably on the amount.
21
Afternoon · 12:00–17:00 Poor Summit winds around 20-30 mph. Gusts around 35-45 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can make walking into it hard work, with buffeting on ridges and edges. Summit cloud is more persistent early in this period, with better prospects later. Rain is forecast during this period. Rain is forecast during the afternoon, but models differ considerably on the amount.
27

Compare an early start with later conditions. The main forecast above covers the day in more detail.

Overnight · 17:00–08:00Wild campingBetaA mixed night to camp, mainly because of the wind: gusts of about 35 mph. 59Mixed · 600 m View detailsHide details
Night beginning Wednesday 21 October 2026

Full overnight outlook

A mixed night to camp, mainly because of the wind. Gusts reach about 35 mph around 900 m and nearer 25 mph around 300 m, so peg out well and use the guylines. Look for shelter from the northwest. It should stay dry. A cold night, down to about 2°C around 900 m. A 3-season bag rated to about 2°C comfort, and a warm mat, should do. Allow more if you sleep cold.

Overnight rain0.1 mm Open ground · 600 m12 mph · gusts 29 mph Morning pack-upDampness possible Sleeping-bag warmthISO comfort rating about 2°C or lower

Moon overnight

Waxing gibbous moon

Illuminated disc
80%
Moonrise
Outside this window
Moonset
03:03 next morning BST

Clear spells may allow a view of the Moon. Illumination describes the sunlit part of the Moon, not brightness at your pitch.

Overnight window: 21 Oct, 17:00 BST to 22 Oct, 08:00 BST. Approximate open-horizon times; hills can hide the Moon. Still take a headtorch.

Elevation reference (open ground)

300 m82 · promising
Wind / gust
10 mph / 24 mph
Typical / low
5.8°C / 5.4°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
600 m59 · mixed
Wind / gust
12 mph / 29 mph
Typical / low
4.7°C / 4.5°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
900 m39 · poor
Wind / gust
14 mph / 34 mph
Typical / low
2.4°C / 1.8°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low

Warmth planning: As a broad starting point, consider a 3-season bag with an ISO/EN comfort rating at or below about 2°C. Allow more margin if you sleep cold or expect fatigue, and use an adequate insulated mat. Dampness is possible, so keep the sleep system dry and ensure its insulation remains effective if damp.

Open-hillside reference. A sheltered pitch may be calmer; cols and ridges may be much windier. Tent design and the exact pitch still matter. Read about sleeping-bag comfort ratings, pitching in strong winds or using the wild-camping forecast.

Did this match your night?Share a quick observation to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

Approximate height is enough, please do not share an exact wild-camp location.

Daytime · exposed rockClimbing & scramblingBetaVery poor conditions for exposed scrambling: gusts of 35–45 mph. Poor0 View detailsHide details
Generic exposed-rock guidance

Full climbing & scrambling outlook

Very poor conditions for exposed scrambling. The rock is likely to be wet and slippery through the day. Gusts of 35–45 mph could throw you off balance on exposed moves and ridges. Cloud on the tops may make route-finding and retreat harder. The rock around the summit is mostly mudstone or slate, a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. On the usual routes up you may also cross basalt, which grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. These are general notes for each rock type, taken from geological maps around the summit, so the rock on your line may differ.

Rock surfaceWet rock likelyPeak gust35-45 mphRain16.2 mm
Main factorsgusts of 35–45 mphwet rock likely
Representative rock around the summit and along available routes Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup
Origin
Sedimentary
Broad rock-response group
Slate or mudstone
Mapping
BGS Geology 50K · 1:50,000
Summit area
Slate or mudstone in 71% of 17 BGS samples within 350 m
Rock-response profile
Moderate confidence
View the summit BGS record

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. These are general notes for each rock type, from geological map samples at and around the summit. The rock on your line can differ, and lichen, vegetation and seepage all change how it feels underfoot.

Rock groups along the sampled routes

These are mapped rock groups, not separate weather forecasts or a ranking of route safety.

Carneddau Aber Falls

volcanic rock

Geological detail and BGS records
Mapped variation

3 rock types appear in the mapped samples

Samples around the summit inform the main rock-response profile, with the summit pin shown separately where it differs. Route samples add further context, but this is not a continuous geological survey.

Summit-area sample Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds.

BGS record
Route sample Basalt Foel Grach Basalt Formation 932–1,053 m samples Seen on Peak Carneddau Aber Falls

Basalt is a dark volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. It is often blocky and shattered, with loose rubble on ledges.

BGS record
Summit-area sample Brecciated-porphyritic felsite Unnamed Igneous Intrusion, Ordovician

Rhyolite is a hard, fine-grained volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and gets slippery on smoother faces when wet. It is hard, but often cracked into sharp, blocky pieces, so some holds are loose.

BGS record

Generic exposed scrambling terrain; BGS summit-area bedrock samples are included where available, but route grade, exact rock, polish, drainage and escape options remain unresolved. Contains British Geological Survey materials © UKRI 2026. How to use the climbing and scrambling forecast.

Did this match your experience?Tell us about the rock surface and wind to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

A broad surface report is enough; you do not need to identify a particular route.

Overnight · Aurora, stars & meteorsAfter darkBetaNight-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. View forecastClose forecast

After dark: aurora and stargazing

Night-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. This does not mean clear skies or no aurora.

Explore the dedicated aurora forecast, meteor shower forecast or dark-sky and astrophotography forecast.

Recommended kit for this dayWeather-aware packing prompts, plus your core hillwalking kitView kit

For a day hillwalk, not a complete route-specific checklist. Carry navigation and backup you can use, warm and waterproof layers, suitable footwear, food and water, a headtorch, emergency shelter, first aid and a way to call for help. Snow, ice, technical terrain and overnight trips need additional equipment and skills.

Does the weather shape your plans?Optional hill-user research. One answer helps; further questions are up to you.Take part

Help the Mountain Decisions Project understand how forecasts influence hill days, including when plans stay the same. Findings will be shared publicly as summaries, not individual responses.

This is about Yr Elen on Wednesday 21 October 2026. It asks about intentions, not whether you actually went out. No name or account is needed.

Open the questions to take part.

About the research and your privacy · Already been out? Share that experience instead

Confidence: Medium
Overall hill weather78Good
Summit wind · 08:00-17:005-20 mph westerly Summit gusts · 08:00-17:0020-30 mph Feels like-4 to 0°C PrecipitationUp to around 2 mm Cloud-free summit estimate90% Cloud base through day1,100-1,700 m Freezing level900-1,200 m DaylightSunrise 07:54 · Sunset 18:05 · 10.2 hours daylight

The day on the hill

A good day on Yr Elen, though expect sleet or snow up high.

Wind

On the summit expect a westerly wind of 5–20 mph for most of the day, with gusts of 20–30 mph at the windiest.

Cloud and visibility

The tops should stay clear of cloud all day. The air should be clear too, so expect far-reaching views from the tops.

Rain and ground

Sleet is possible on the tops, and it could turn to snow if it is a little colder. Drizzle at first, clearing by mid-morning. Expect up to 2 mm in total, measured as melted water, so any snow would lie deeper. Some forecast models keep it drier in the afternoon. It will be wet underfoot after recent rain.

Warmth and kit

On the tops it will be around 0 to 4°C, feeling like -4 to 0°C in the wind. The freezing level is close to summit height. Take a hat, gloves, a windproof and a spare warm layer. Pack waterproofs too, and keep a warm layer dry in your pack.

Daylight

Sunset is around 6:05pm, so allow time to get off the hill before dark, and carry a head torch.

Forecast confidence

It's still three days off and could change, so check again nearer the time.

Sunshine context Model-grid estimate, not summit sunshine

The surrounding model grid indicates 10 h of sunshine. This is not a forecast of time in sunshine on the summit. Use the cloud and views outlook above for the conditions on this mountain.

Early
2 h
Midday
4 h
Later
2 h

Overnight forecast: 17:00–08:00 (UK local time), in Wild camping below.

Morning · 08:00–12:00 Good Summit winds around 5-15 mph. Gusts around 15-25 mph are possible on exposed ground. Summit cloud becomes more persistent later. Rain is forecast during this period.
83
Afternoon · 12:00–17:00 Good Summit winds around 10-20 mph. Gusts around 20-30 mph are possible on exposed ground. Rain is possible during the afternoon, but forecast models disagree on whether it will fall.
72

Compare an early start with later conditions. The main forecast above covers the day in more detail.

Overnight · 17:00–08:00Wild campingBetaToo windy for an exposed pitch up around 900 m (gusts of about 45 mph and around 20 mm of rain). Lower down, a poor night to camp on open ground. 39Poor · 600 m View detailsHide details
Night beginning Thursday 22 October 2026

Full overnight outlook

Too windy for an exposed pitch up around 900 m. Lower down, a poor night to camp on open ground. Gusts reach about 45 mph around 900 m and nearer 30 mph around 300 m, enough to damage a tent on open ground. Pitch low down and in real shelter, or leave it for another night. The wind swings from southwesterly to northeasterly overnight, so a pitch sheltered at dusk may not be by morning. Dry to pitch, then a wet night, around 20 mm of rain overnight and into the morning, so expect to pack a wet tent. Up around 900 m you'd likely be in cloud for part of the night: damp, and hard to find your way if you need to move. A cold night, down to about 1°C around 900 m. A warm 3-season or 3–4 season bag rated to about 0°C comfort, and a warm mat, should do. Allow more if you sleep cold.

Overnight rain19.5 mm Open ground · 600 m17 mph · gusts 38 mph Morning pack-upDampness possible Sleeping-bag warmthISO comfort rating about 0°C or lower

Moon overnight

Waxing gibbous moon

Illuminated disc
88%
Moonrise
Outside this window
Moonset
04:22 next morning BST

Extensive cloud may limit moonlight. Illumination describes the sunlit part of the Moon, not brightness at your pitch.

Overnight window: 22 Oct, 17:00 BST to 23 Oct, 08:00 BST. Approximate open-horizon times; hills can hide the Moon. Still take a headtorch.

Elevation reference (open ground)

300 m39 · poor
Wind / gust
14 mph / 32 mph
Typical / low
6.7°C / 4.7°C · several hours
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
600 m39 · poor
Wind / gust
17 mph / 38 mph
Typical / low
6.1°C / 2.7°C · several hours
In cloud
20% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
900 m19 · very poor
Wind / gust
20 mph / 45 mph
Typical / low
3.5°C / 1.0°C · much of the night
In cloud
27% of modelled night
Condensation
Moderate

Warmth planning: As a broad starting point, consider a warm 3-season or 3–4 season bag with an ISO/EN comfort rating at or below about 0°C. Allow more margin if you sleep cold or expect fatigue, and use an adequate insulated mat. Dampness is possible, so keep the sleep system dry and ensure its insulation remains effective if damp.

Open-hillside reference. A sheltered pitch may be calmer; cols and ridges may be much windier. Tent design and the exact pitch still matter. Read about sleeping-bag comfort ratings, pitching in strong winds or using the wild-camping forecast.

Did this match your night?Share a quick observation to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

Approximate height is enough, please do not share an exact wild-camp location.

Daytime · exposed rockClimbing & scramblingBetaPoor conditions for exposed scrambling: wet, slippery rock. Poor25 View detailsHide details
Generic exposed-rock guidance

Full climbing & scrambling outlook

Poor conditions for exposed scrambling. The rock is likely to be wet and slippery through the day. Gusts of 20–30 mph will be noticeable on exposed ridges. The rock around the summit is mostly mudstone or slate, a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. On the usual routes up you may also cross basalt, which grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. These are general notes for each rock type, taken from geological maps around the summit, so the rock on your line may differ.

Rock surfaceWet rock likelyPeak gust20-30 mphRain0.2 mm
Main concernwet rock likely
Representative rock around the summit and along available routes Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup
Origin
Sedimentary
Broad rock-response group
Slate or mudstone
Mapping
BGS Geology 50K · 1:50,000
Summit area
Slate or mudstone in 71% of 17 BGS samples within 350 m
Rock-response profile
Moderate confidence
View the summit BGS record

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. These are general notes for each rock type, from geological map samples at and around the summit. The rock on your line can differ, and lichen, vegetation and seepage all change how it feels underfoot.

Rock groups along the sampled routes

These are mapped rock groups, not separate weather forecasts or a ranking of route safety.

Carneddau Aber Falls

volcanic rock

Geological detail and BGS records
Mapped variation

3 rock types appear in the mapped samples

Samples around the summit inform the main rock-response profile, with the summit pin shown separately where it differs. Route samples add further context, but this is not a continuous geological survey.

Summit-area sample Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds.

BGS record
Route sample Basalt Foel Grach Basalt Formation 932–1,053 m samples Seen on Peak Carneddau Aber Falls

Basalt is a dark volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. It is often blocky and shattered, with loose rubble on ledges.

BGS record
Summit-area sample Brecciated-porphyritic felsite Unnamed Igneous Intrusion, Ordovician

Rhyolite is a hard, fine-grained volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and gets slippery on smoother faces when wet. It is hard, but often cracked into sharp, blocky pieces, so some holds are loose.

BGS record

Generic exposed scrambling terrain; BGS summit-area bedrock samples are included where available, but route grade, exact rock, polish, drainage and escape options remain unresolved. Contains British Geological Survey materials © UKRI 2026. How to use the climbing and scrambling forecast.

Did this match your experience?Tell us about the rock surface and wind to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

A broad surface report is enough; you do not need to identify a particular route.

Overnight · Aurora, stars & meteorsAfter darkBetaNight-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. View forecastClose forecast

After dark: aurora and stargazing

Night-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. This does not mean clear skies or no aurora.

Explore the dedicated aurora forecast, meteor shower forecast or dark-sky and astrophotography forecast.

Recommended kit for this dayWeather-aware packing prompts, plus your core hillwalking kitView kit

For a day hillwalk, not a complete route-specific checklist. Carry navigation and backup you can use, warm and waterproof layers, suitable footwear, food and water, a headtorch, emergency shelter, first aid and a way to call for help. Snow, ice, technical terrain and overnight trips need additional equipment and skills.

Does the weather shape your plans?Optional hill-user research. One answer helps; further questions are up to you.Take part

Help the Mountain Decisions Project understand how forecasts influence hill days, including when plans stay the same. Findings will be shared publicly as summaries, not individual responses.

This is about Yr Elen on Thursday 22 October 2026. It asks about intentions, not whether you actually went out. No name or account is needed.

Open the questions to take part.

About the research and your privacy · Already been out? Share that experience instead

Confidence: Medium
Overall hill weather10Poor
Summit wind · 08:00-17:0030-40 mph northerly Summit gusts · 08:00-17:0040-50 mph Feels like-8 to -4°C PrecipitationAround 10-20 mm Cloud-free summit estimate70% Cloud base through day900-1,800 m Freezing level1,000-1,300 m DaylightSunrise 07:56 · Sunset 18:03 · 10.1 hours daylight

The day on the hill

A poor day on the tops of Yr Elen, with burns in severe spate and strong, gusty winds.

Things to watch

Burns and rivers are likely to be in severe spate through much of the day and into the night. Do not attempt unbridged crossings. Timings are rough. Turn back if a crossing looks unsafe.

Wind

On the summit expect a northerly wind of 30–40 mph for most of the day, with gusts of 40–50 mph at the windiest. Lower down on the open hillside it will be more like 15–25 mph. Gusts like that are strong enough to knock you off balance, so take care near edges and on narrow ridges. If the windier forecast models are right, summit gusts could reach 55–65 mph.

Cloud and visibility

The tops should stay mostly clear of cloud. The cloud base could be as low as 600–900 m early in the morning. A few forecast models bring it lower still, to around 300–600 m. Visibility may drop briefly in showers. It will look largely cloudy overhead, but that cloud should mostly stay above the tops.

Rain and ground

Sleet is possible on the tops, and it could turn to snow if it is a little colder. Heavy rain at first, clearing by mid-afternoon. Expect 10–20 mm in total, measured as melted water, so any snow would lie deeper. Totals are uncertain and could be higher. It will be wet underfoot after recent rain.

Warmth and kit

On the tops it will be around 0 to 4°C, feeling like -8 to -4°C in the wind. The freezing level is close to summit height. Take a hat, gloves, a windproof and a spare warm layer. Pack waterproofs too, and keep a warm layer dry in your pack.

Daylight

Sunset is around 6:05pm, so allow time to get off the hill before dark, and carry a head torch.

Forecast confidence

It's still four days off and could change, so check again nearer the time.

Sunshine context Model-grid estimate, not summit sunshine

The surrounding model grid indicates 0 h of sunshine. This is not a forecast of time in sunshine on the summit. Use the cloud and views outlook above for the conditions on this mountain.

Early
0 h
Midday
0 h
Later
0 h

Overnight forecast: 17:00–08:00 (UK local time), in Wild camping below.

Morning · 08:00–12:00 Poor Summit winds around 30-40 mph. Gusts around 40-50 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can make walking into it hard work, with buffeting on ridges and edges. Summit cloud is more persistent early in this period, with better prospects later. Rain is forecast during this period. Rain is forecast during the morning, but models differ considerably on the amount.
3
Afternoon · 12:00–17:00 Poor Summit winds around 30-40 mph. Gusts around 40-50 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can knock you off balance, so take care near edges and on narrow ridges. Rain is forecast during this period. Rain is possible during the afternoon, but forecast models disagree on whether it will fall.
17

Compare an early start with later conditions. The main forecast above covers the day in more detail.

Overnight · 17:00–08:00Wild campingBetaToo windy for an exposed pitch up around 900 m (gusts of about 45 mph). Lower down, a mixed night to camp, mainly because of the wind. 39Poor · 600 m View detailsHide details
Night beginning Friday 23 October 2026

Full overnight outlook

Too windy for an exposed pitch up around 900 m. Lower down, a mixed night to camp, mainly because of the wind. Gusts reach about 45 mph around 900 m and nearer 30 mph around 300 m, which makes for a noisy, testing night even in a good tent. Pitch low down and in real shelter, or leave it for another night. The wind swings from northwesterly to southwesterly overnight, so a pitch sheltered at dusk may not be by morning. Dry to pitch, then a little rain by morning, so you'll likely pack up in the wet. A cold night, down to about 2°C around 900 m. A 3-season bag rated to about 2°C comfort, and a warm mat, should do. Allow more if you sleep cold.

Overnight rain0.4 mm Open ground · 600 m21 mph · gusts 38 mph Morning pack-upDampness possible Sleeping-bag warmthISO comfort rating about 2°C or lower

Moon overnight

Waxing gibbous moon

Illuminated disc
94%
Moonrise
Outside this window
Moonset
05:43 next morning BST

Extensive cloud may limit moonlight. Illumination describes the sunlit part of the Moon, not brightness at your pitch.

Overnight window: 23 Oct, 17:00 BST to 24 Oct, 08:00 BST. Approximate open-horizon times; hills can hide the Moon. Still take a headtorch.

Elevation reference (open ground)

300 m59 · mixed
Wind / gust
17 mph / 31 mph
Typical / low
5.4°C / 5.2°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
600 m39 · poor
Wind / gust
21 mph / 38 mph
Typical / low
4.6°C / 4.4°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
900 m19 · very poor
Wind / gust
25 mph / 44 mph
Typical / low
2.0°C / 1.5°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low

Warmth planning: As a broad starting point, consider a 3-season bag with an ISO/EN comfort rating at or below about 2°C. Allow more margin if you sleep cold or expect fatigue, and use an adequate insulated mat. Dampness is possible, so keep the sleep system dry and ensure its insulation remains effective if damp.

Open-hillside reference. A sheltered pitch may be calmer; cols and ridges may be much windier. Tent design and the exact pitch still matter. Read about sleeping-bag comfort ratings, pitching in strong winds or using the wild-camping forecast.

Did this match your night?Share a quick observation to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

Approximate height is enough, please do not share an exact wild-camp location.

Daytime · exposed rockClimbing & scramblingBetaVery poor conditions for exposed scrambling: gusts of 40–50 mph. Poor0 View detailsHide details
Generic exposed-rock guidance

Full climbing & scrambling outlook

Very poor conditions for exposed scrambling. The rock is likely to be wet and slippery through the day. Gusts of 40–50 mph could throw you off balance on exposed moves and ridges. The rock around the summit is mostly mudstone or slate, a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. On the usual routes up you may also cross basalt, which grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. These are general notes for each rock type, taken from geological maps around the summit, so the rock on your line may differ.

Rock surfaceWet rock likelyPeak gust40-50 mphRain15.0 mm
Main factorsgusts of 40–50 mphwet rock likely
Representative rock around the summit and along available routes Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup
Origin
Sedimentary
Broad rock-response group
Slate or mudstone
Mapping
BGS Geology 50K · 1:50,000
Summit area
Slate or mudstone in 71% of 17 BGS samples within 350 m
Rock-response profile
Moderate confidence
View the summit BGS record

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. These are general notes for each rock type, from geological map samples at and around the summit. The rock on your line can differ, and lichen, vegetation and seepage all change how it feels underfoot.

Rock groups along the sampled routes

These are mapped rock groups, not separate weather forecasts or a ranking of route safety.

Carneddau Aber Falls

volcanic rock

Geological detail and BGS records
Mapped variation

3 rock types appear in the mapped samples

Samples around the summit inform the main rock-response profile, with the summit pin shown separately where it differs. Route samples add further context, but this is not a continuous geological survey.

Summit-area sample Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds.

BGS record
Route sample Basalt Foel Grach Basalt Formation 932–1,053 m samples Seen on Peak Carneddau Aber Falls

Basalt is a dark volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. It is often blocky and shattered, with loose rubble on ledges.

BGS record
Summit-area sample Brecciated-porphyritic felsite Unnamed Igneous Intrusion, Ordovician

Rhyolite is a hard, fine-grained volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and gets slippery on smoother faces when wet. It is hard, but often cracked into sharp, blocky pieces, so some holds are loose.

BGS record

Generic exposed scrambling terrain; BGS summit-area bedrock samples are included where available, but route grade, exact rock, polish, drainage and escape options remain unresolved. Contains British Geological Survey materials © UKRI 2026. How to use the climbing and scrambling forecast.

Did this match your experience?Tell us about the rock surface and wind to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

A broad surface report is enough; you do not need to identify a particular route.

Overnight · Aurora, stars & meteorsAfter darkBetaNight-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. View forecastClose forecast

After dark: aurora and stargazing

Night-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. This does not mean clear skies or no aurora.

Explore the dedicated aurora forecast, meteor shower forecast or dark-sky and astrophotography forecast.

Recommended kit for this dayWeather-aware packing prompts, plus your core hillwalking kitView kit

For a day hillwalk, not a complete route-specific checklist. Carry navigation and backup you can use, warm and waterproof layers, suitable footwear, food and water, a headtorch, emergency shelter, first aid and a way to call for help. Snow, ice, technical terrain and overnight trips need additional equipment and skills.

Does the weather shape your plans?Optional hill-user research. One answer helps; further questions are up to you.Take part

Help the Mountain Decisions Project understand how forecasts influence hill days, including when plans stay the same. Findings will be shared publicly as summaries, not individual responses.

This is about Yr Elen on Friday 23 October 2026. It asks about intentions, not whether you actually went out. No name or account is needed.

Open the questions to take part.

About the research and your privacy · Already been out? Share that experience instead

Confidence: Unavailable
Overall hill weather32Poor
Summit wind · 08:00-17:0025-45 mph southwesterly Summit gusts · 08:00-17:0055-65 mph Feels like-6 to -2°C PrecipitationAround 5-10 mm Cloud-free summit estimate50% Cloud base through day600-1,500 m Freezing levelAbove summit DaylightSunrise 07:58 · Sunset 18:01 · 10.1 hours daylight

The day on the hill

A poor day on the tops of Yr Elen, with very strong, gusty winds and rain for much of the day.

Wind

On the summit expect a south-westerly wind of 25–45 mph for most of the day, with gusts of 55–65 mph at the windiest. Lower down on the open hillside it will be more like 10–20 mph. Gusts like that are strong enough to make walking very difficult and tiring, with a risk of being blown off your feet. Avoid exposed ridges and edges. If the windier forecast models are right, summit gusts could reach 85–95 mph.

Cloud and visibility

The tops should stay mostly clear of cloud. The cloud base could be as low as 600–900 m in the late afternoon. A few forecast models bring it lower still, to around 300–600 m. Visibility may drop briefly in showers.

Rain and ground

Rain for much of the day. Expect 5–10 mm in total. Some forecast models keep it drier in the afternoon. The ground is very wet after recent rain, so expect boggy paths.

Warmth and kit

On the tops it will be around 2 to 6°C, feeling like -6 to -2°C in the wind. It turns milder through the day. The freezing level is above the summits. Take a hat, gloves, a windproof and a spare warm layer. Pack waterproofs too, and keep a warm layer dry in your pack.

Daylight

Sunset is around 6pm, so allow time to get off the hill before dark, and carry a head torch.

Forecast confidence

It's still five days off and could change, so check again nearer the time.

Sunshine context Model-grid estimate, not summit sunshine

The surrounding model grid indicates 0 h of sunshine. This is not a forecast of time in sunshine on the summit. Use the cloud and views outlook above for the conditions on this mountain.

Early
0 h
Midday
0 h
Later
0 h

Overnight forecast: 17:00–08:00 (UK local time), in Wild camping below.

Morning · 08:00–12:00 Poor Summit winds around 25-35 mph early in the morning, strengthening to 35-45 mph later. Gusts around 50-60 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can make walking very difficult and tiring, with a risk of being blown off your feet. Avoid exposed ridges and edges. Rain is forecast during this period.
43
Afternoon · 12:00–17:00 Poor Winds strengthen compared with the morning. Summit winds around 30-45 mph. Gusts around 55-65 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can make walking very difficult and tiring, with a risk of being blown off your feet. Avoid exposed ridges and edges. Rain is forecast during this period. Some forecast models bring rain during the afternoon, while others keep it mostly dry.
22

Compare an early start with later conditions. The main forecast above covers the day in more detail.

Overnight · 17:00–08:00Wild campingBetaNot a night to camp on the open hill: gusts of about 60 mph and about 7 mm of rain. 9Poor · 600 m View detailsHide details
Night beginning Saturday 24 October 2026

Full overnight outlook

Not a night to camp on the open hill. Gusts reach about 60 mph around 900 m and nearer 45 mph around 300 m, strong enough to flatten or tear a tent. Don't count on finding shelter once you're up there. Choose another night or a low, sheltered spot. Expect about 7 mm of rain, with rain while you pitch and still falling when you pack up. Up around 900 m you'd likely be in cloud for part of the night: damp, and hard to find your way if you need to move. A cold night, down to about 2°C around 900 m. A 3-season bag rated to about 2°C comfort, and a warm mat, should do. Allow more if you sleep cold. The ground will be sodden after recent rain, so pick a firm, well-drained pitch.

Overnight rain7.2 mm Open ground · 600 m29 mph · gusts 51 mph Morning pack-upDampness possible Sleeping-bag warmthISO comfort rating about 2°C or lower

Moon overnight

Near-full moon

Illuminated disc
98%
Moonrise
Outside this window
Moonset
06:09 next morning GMT

Extensive cloud may limit moonlight. Illumination describes the sunlit part of the Moon, not brightness at your pitch.

Overnight window: 24 Oct, 17:00 BST to 25 Oct, 08:00 GMT. Approximate open-horizon times; hills can hide the Moon. Still take a headtorch.

Elevation reference (open ground)

300 m19 · very poor
Wind / gust
24 mph / 43 mph
Typical / low
7.7°C / 5.5°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Moderate
600 m9 · very poor
Wind / gust
29 mph / 51 mph
Typical / low
7.2°C / 4.9°C · a brief spell
In cloud
19% of modelled night
Condensation
High
900 m0 · very poor
Wind / gust
34 mph / 60 mph
Typical / low
4.9°C / 2.3°C · several hours
In cloud
38% of modelled night
Condensation
High

Warmth planning: As a broad starting point, consider a 3-season bag with an ISO/EN comfort rating at or below about 2°C. Allow more margin if you sleep cold or expect fatigue, and use an adequate insulated mat. Dampness is possible, so keep the sleep system dry and ensure its insulation remains effective if damp.

The ground is likely to be very wet after recent rain. Expect boggy approaches and choose a durable pitch carefully.

Open-hillside reference. A sheltered pitch may be calmer; cols and ridges may be much windier. Tent design and the exact pitch still matter. Read about sleeping-bag comfort ratings, pitching in strong winds or using the wild-camping forecast.

Did this match your night?Share a quick observation to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

Approximate height is enough, please do not share an exact wild-camp location.

Daytime · exposed rockClimbing & scramblingBetaVery poor conditions for exposed scrambling: gusts of 55–65 mph. Poor0 View detailsHide details
Generic exposed-rock guidance

Full climbing & scrambling outlook

Very poor conditions for exposed scrambling. The rock is likely to be wet and slippery through the day. Gusts of 55–65 mph are strong enough to make walking very difficult and tiring, with a risk of being blown off your feet. Avoid exposed ridges and edges. The rock around the summit is mostly mudstone or slate, a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. On the usual routes up you may also cross basalt, which grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. These are general notes for each rock type, taken from geological maps around the summit, so the rock on your line may differ.

Rock surfaceWet rock likelyPeak gust55-65 mphRain5.0 mm
Main factorsgusts of 55–65 mphwet rock likely
Representative rock around the summit and along available routes Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup
Origin
Sedimentary
Broad rock-response group
Slate or mudstone
Mapping
BGS Geology 50K · 1:50,000
Summit area
Slate or mudstone in 71% of 17 BGS samples within 350 m
Rock-response profile
Moderate confidence
View the summit BGS record

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. These are general notes for each rock type, from geological map samples at and around the summit. The rock on your line can differ, and lichen, vegetation and seepage all change how it feels underfoot.

Rock groups along the sampled routes

These are mapped rock groups, not separate weather forecasts or a ranking of route safety.

Carneddau Aber Falls

volcanic rock

Geological detail and BGS records
Mapped variation

3 rock types appear in the mapped samples

Samples around the summit inform the main rock-response profile, with the summit pin shown separately where it differs. Route samples add further context, but this is not a continuous geological survey.

Summit-area sample Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds.

BGS record
Route sample Basalt Foel Grach Basalt Formation 932–1,053 m samples Seen on Peak Carneddau Aber Falls

Basalt is a dark volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. It is often blocky and shattered, with loose rubble on ledges.

BGS record
Summit-area sample Brecciated-porphyritic felsite Unnamed Igneous Intrusion, Ordovician

Rhyolite is a hard, fine-grained volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and gets slippery on smoother faces when wet. It is hard, but often cracked into sharp, blocky pieces, so some holds are loose.

BGS record

Generic exposed scrambling terrain; BGS summit-area bedrock samples are included where available, but route grade, exact rock, polish, drainage and escape options remain unresolved. Contains British Geological Survey materials © UKRI 2026. How to use the climbing and scrambling forecast.

Did this match your experience?Tell us about the rock surface and wind to help improve this beta forecast.Give feedback

A broad surface report is enough; you do not need to identify a particular route.

Overnight · Aurora, stars & meteorsAfter darkBetaNight-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. View forecastClose forecast

After dark: aurora and stargazing

Night-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. This does not mean clear skies or no aurora.

Explore the dedicated aurora forecast, meteor shower forecast or dark-sky and astrophotography forecast.

Recommended kit for this dayWeather-aware packing prompts, plus your core hillwalking kitView kit

For a day hillwalk, not a complete route-specific checklist. Carry navigation and backup you can use, warm and waterproof layers, suitable footwear, food and water, a headtorch, emergency shelter, first aid and a way to call for help. Snow, ice, technical terrain and overnight trips need additional equipment and skills.

Does the weather shape your plans?Optional hill-user research. One answer helps; further questions are up to you.Take part

Help the Mountain Decisions Project understand how forecasts influence hill days, including when plans stay the same. Findings will be shared publicly as summaries, not individual responses.

This is about Yr Elen on Saturday 24 October 2026. It asks about intentions, not whether you actually went out. No name or account is needed.

Open the questions to take part.

About the research and your privacy · Already been out? Share that experience instead

Confidence: Unavailable
Overall hill weather24Poor
Summit wind · 08:00-17:0040-50 mph westerly Summit gusts · 08:00-17:0055-65 mph Feels like-8 to -4°C PrecipitationAround 2-5 mm Cloud-free summit estimate90% Freezing levelAbove summit DaylightSunrise 07:00 · Sunset 16:59 · 10.0 hours daylight

The day on the hill

A poor day on the tops of Yr Elen, with very strong, gusty winds and drizzle for much of the day.

Wind

On the summit expect a westerly wind of 40–50 mph for most of the day, with gusts of 55–65 mph at the windiest. Lower down on the open hillside it will be more like 10–20 mph. Gusts like that are strong enough to make walking very difficult and tiring, with a risk of being blown off your feet. Avoid exposed ridges and edges. If the windier forecast models are right, summit gusts could reach 80–90 mph.

Cloud and visibility

The tops should stay clear of cloud all day.

Rain and ground

Drizzle for much of the day. Expect 2–5 mm in total. It will be wet underfoot after recent rain.

Warmth and kit

On the tops it will be around 0 to 4°C, feeling like -8 to -4°C in the wind. The freezing level is close to summit height. Take a hat, gloves, a windproof and a spare warm layer. Pack waterproofs too, and keep a warm layer dry in your pack.

Daylight

Sunset is around 5pm, so allow time to get off the hill before dark, and carry a head torch.

Forecast confidence

It's still six days off and could change, so check again nearer the time.

Sunshine context Model-grid estimate, not summit sunshine

The surrounding model grid indicates 8.9 h of sunshine. This is not a forecast of time in sunshine on the summit. Use the cloud and views outlook above for the conditions on this mountain.

Early
2 h
Midday
4 h
Later
0.9 h

Overnight forecast: 17:00–08:00 (UK local time), in Wild camping below.

Morning · 08:00–12:00 Poor Summit winds around 40-50 mph. Gusts around 55-65 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can make walking very difficult and tiring, with a risk of being blown off your feet. Avoid exposed ridges and edges. Rain is forecast during this period.
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Afternoon · 12:00–17:00 Poor Summit winds around 40-50 mph. Gusts around 55-65 mph are possible on exposed ground. Gusts this strong can make walking very difficult and tiring, with a risk of being blown off your feet. Avoid exposed ridges and edges. Rain is forecast during this period.
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Compare an early start with later conditions. The main forecast above covers the day in more detail.

Overnight · 17:00–08:00Wild campingBetaNot a night to camp on the open hill: gusts of about 55 mph and about 7 mm of rain. 9Poor · 600 m View detailsHide details
Night beginning Sunday 25 October 2026

Full overnight outlook

Not a night to camp on the open hill. Gusts reach about 55 mph around 900 m and nearer 40 mph around 300 m, strong enough to flatten or tear a tent. Don't count on finding shelter once you're up there. Choose another night or a low, sheltered spot. Expect about 7 mm of rain, with rain while you pitch and still falling when you pack up. A cold night, down to about 1°C around 900 m. A warm 3-season or 3–4 season bag rated to about 0°C comfort, and a warm mat, should do. Allow more if you sleep cold.

Overnight rain6.9 mm Open ground · 600 m33 mph · gusts 49 mph Morning pack-upDampness possible Sleeping-bag warmthISO comfort rating about 0°C or lower

Moon overnight

Near-full moon

Illuminated disc
100%
Moonrise
Outside this window
Moonset
07:39 next morning GMT

Extensive cloud may limit moonlight. Illumination describes the sunlit part of the Moon, not brightness at your pitch.

Overnight window: 25 Oct, 17:00 GMT to 26 Oct, 08:00 GMT. Approximate open-horizon times; hills can hide the Moon. Still take a headtorch.

Elevation reference (open ground)

300 m19 · very poor
Wind / gust
27 mph / 40 mph
Typical / low
4.0°C / 3.7°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
600 m9 · very poor
Wind / gust
33 mph / 49 mph
Typical / low
4.0°C / 3.7°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Low
900 m9 · very poor
Wind / gust
39 mph / 57 mph
Typical / low
1.7°C / 1.2°C · much of the night
In cloud
0% of modelled night
Condensation
Moderate

Warmth planning: As a broad starting point, consider a warm 3-season or 3–4 season bag with an ISO/EN comfort rating at or below about 0°C. Allow more margin if you sleep cold or expect fatigue, and use an adequate insulated mat. Dampness is possible, so keep the sleep system dry and ensure its insulation remains effective if damp.

Open-hillside reference. A sheltered pitch may be calmer; cols and ridges may be much windier. Tent design and the exact pitch still matter. Read about sleeping-bag comfort ratings, pitching in strong winds or using the wild-camping forecast.

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Approximate height is enough, please do not share an exact wild-camp location.

Daytime · exposed rockClimbing & scramblingBetaVery poor conditions for exposed scrambling: gusts of 55–65 mph. Poor0 View detailsHide details
Generic exposed-rock guidance

Full climbing & scrambling outlook

Very poor conditions for exposed scrambling. The rock is likely to be wet and slippery through the day. Gusts of 55–65 mph are strong enough to make walking very difficult and tiring, with a risk of being blown off your feet. Avoid exposed ridges and edges. The rock around the summit is mostly mudstone or slate, a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. On the usual routes up you may also cross basalt, which grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. These are general notes for each rock type, taken from geological maps around the summit, so the rock on your line may differ.

Rock surfaceWet rock likelyPeak gust55-65 mphRain5.9 mm
Main factorsgusts of 55–65 mphwet rock likely
Representative rock around the summit and along available routes Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup
Origin
Sedimentary
Broad rock-response group
Slate or mudstone
Mapping
BGS Geology 50K · 1:50,000
Summit area
Slate or mudstone in 71% of 17 BGS samples within 350 m
Rock-response profile
Moderate confidence
View the summit BGS record

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds. These are general notes for each rock type, from geological map samples at and around the summit. The rock on your line can differ, and lichen, vegetation and seepage all change how it feels underfoot.

Rock groups along the sampled routes

These are mapped rock groups, not separate weather forecasts or a ranking of route safety.

Carneddau Aber Falls

volcanic rock

Geological detail and BGS records
Mapped variation

3 rock types appear in the mapped samples

Samples around the summit inform the main rock-response profile, with the summit pin shown separately where it differs. Route samples add further context, but this is not a continuous geological survey.

Summit-area sample Siltstone Nant Ffrancon Subgroup

Mudstone or slate is a soft, fine-grained rock that splits into thin flakes. It has only fair grip even when dry and is slippery when wet. It is often shattered, breaking into loose flakes, scree and poor holds.

BGS record
Route sample Basalt Foel Grach Basalt Formation 932–1,053 m samples Seen on Peak Carneddau Aber Falls

Basalt is a dark volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and can be very slippery when wet. It is often blocky and shattered, with loose rubble on ledges.

BGS record
Summit-area sample Brecciated-porphyritic felsite Unnamed Igneous Intrusion, Ordovician

Rhyolite is a hard, fine-grained volcanic rock. It grips well when dry and gets slippery on smoother faces when wet. It is hard, but often cracked into sharp, blocky pieces, so some holds are loose.

BGS record

Generic exposed scrambling terrain; BGS summit-area bedrock samples are included where available, but route grade, exact rock, polish, drainage and escape options remain unresolved. Contains British Geological Survey materials © UKRI 2026. How to use the climbing and scrambling forecast.

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A broad surface report is enough; you do not need to identify a particular route.

Overnight · Aurora, stars & meteorsAfter darkBetaNight-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. View forecastClose forecast

After dark: aurora and stargazing

Night-sky guidance is unavailable for this night. This does not mean clear skies or no aurora.

Explore the dedicated aurora forecast, meteor shower forecast or dark-sky and astrophotography forecast.

Recommended kit for this dayWeather-aware packing prompts, plus your core hillwalking kitView kit

For a day hillwalk, not a complete route-specific checklist. Carry navigation and backup you can use, warm and waterproof layers, suitable footwear, food and water, a headtorch, emergency shelter, first aid and a way to call for help. Snow, ice, technical terrain and overnight trips need additional equipment and skills.

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This is about Yr Elen on Sunday 25 October 2026. It asks about intentions, not whether you actually went out. No name or account is needed.

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Weather data: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0). Adapted by Mountain Weather.

Forecast run: 2026-10-18

A forecast is part of the decision.

Mountain weather can differ sharply from conditions in the valley. Check official warnings, carry appropriate navigation and clothing, and be ready to change the plan. Read how Mountain Weather forecasts are produced and where their limits lie.

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