Smaller offshore sea state
A smaller offshore sea state is forecast; local access and wave reach remain unassessed.
Thursday 8 October · 08:00 to 18:31 local time
From 08:00 or sunrise, whichever is later, until sunset. Tide-related turns below cover the full calendar day.
Offshore waves
0.6 to 0.7 mSignificant wave height, not the largest individual wave.
Swell
0.2 mPeriod 3.4 to 4 seconds. Longer-period swell can matter even in light wind.
Coastal wind
5.4 to 11 mphGusts 9.2 to 20.8 mph. Model 10 m open-ground wind, not face or belay wind.
Rain and temperature
0 mm8.1 to 14.8°C. Rain covers source hours overlapping the daytime window.
Coast and spray
Local spray unresolved
- The offshore direction is oblique or away from the coast, but local wave shelter is not established.
Broad southerly coast exposure for testing. Quarry walls, caves and ledges have differing local aspects, which are not surveyed here.
Spray is an uncalibrated indication, not a probability or a height prediction. A lee wind does not establish shelter from swell.
Predicted astronomical tides
Calculated every five minutes from harmonic constants fitted to the nearby tide gauge's measured record. Some locations can have genuine secondary highs and lows.
- Low tide02:10
- High tide07:52
- Low tide09:38
- High tide11:00
- Low tide14:32
- High tide19:41
- Low tide22:40
- High tide23:14
Swanage Pier tide gauge, about 4 km from the crag. Dancing Ledge access height is not calibrated to the gauge datum. Times are predictions, not observations at the crag. Heights are deliberately omitted because they are not tied to a climbing ledge or chart datum here.
Total water-level model
Approximate peaks and dips in total sea level, including tide and weather effects. Source resolution is hourly, not a guarantee of timing accuracy.
- Model level dipAbout 01:00
- Model level peakAbout 06:00
- Model level dipAbout 13:00
- Model level peakAbout 18:00
The total-water heights use mean sea level, not chart datum. Do not compare them directly with guidebook tidal-access heights.
Different parts of the crag
Lower ledge and sea-level rock
The lower ledge and caves are distinct from the upper quarry. No tidal access or deep-water-soloing assessment is provided.
Upper quarry
Treat the upper quarry separately from sea-level rock. This pilot does not estimate how high spray reaches or confirm access.
How conditions change through the day
Directions show where wind and waves approach from, relative to the provisional broad coast aspect, not a surveyed climbing face.
| Time | Model water | Waves | Swell | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | -0.2 m MSL Falling | 0.7 m Away from coast | 0.2 m, 4.1 s Along coast | 8.7 mph Away from coast |
| 09:00 | -0.5 m MSL Falling | 0.7 m Away from coast | 0.2 m, 4 s Along coast | 8.9 mph Away from coast |
| 10:00 | -0.6 m MSL Falling | 0.7 m Away from coast | 0.2 m, 3.9 s Along coast | 11 mph Away from coast |
| 11:00 | -0.7 m MSL Falling | 0.6 m Away from coast | 0.2 m, 3.7 s Along coast | 11 mph Away from coast |
| 12:00 | -1 m MSL Falling | 0.6 m Away from coast | 0.2 m, 3.5 s Along coast | 11 mph Away from coast |
| 13:00 | -1.1 m MSL Changing slowly | 0.6 m Away from coast | 0.2 m, 3.4 s Along coast | 9.6 mph Away from coast |
| 14:00 | -1 m MSL Rising | 0.6 m Away from coast | 0.2 m, 3.4 s Along coast | 10.1 mph Away from coast |
| 15:00 | -0.5 m MSL Rising | 0.6 m Away from coast | 0.2 m, 3.5 s Along coast | 9.6 mph Away from coast |
| 16:00 | 0 m MSL Rising | 0.6 m Along coast | 0.2 m, 3.6 s Along coast | 8.3 mph Away from coast |
| 17:00 | 0.4 m MSL Rising | 0.6 m Along coast | 0.2 m, 3.6 s Along coast | 8.9 mph Away from coast |
| 18:00 | 0.7 m MSL Changing slowly | 0.6 m Along coast | 0.2 m, 3.5 s Along coast | 5.4 mph Along coast |
How this preview works and what is missing
Astronomical tides use 50 harmonic constituents from TICON-4, fitted to many years of measured tide-gauge data. The Moon and Sun are represented through these astronomical constituents, while local coastal shape is learned from the gauge record. Wind and pressure are not added to that curve.
Separately, we combine Open-Meteo waves, swell and total sea-level forecasts with local weather and a provisional coast-facing direction. Larger waves, longer periods and waves approaching the coast strengthen the sea-state signal. Onshore wind strengthens the spray signal. These are transparent research rules, not calibrated predictions of wave reach.
We do not add swell to total wave height because total waves already include swell. We also keep the astronomical tide and weather-affected total-water model separate to avoid counting surge twice.
- Offshore model guidance, not conditions at a particular ledge. Individual waves can exceed the quoted significant height. Check official tide tables, route access and the sea on arrival; no safe-access window is calculated.
- Spray signals are provisional rules, not calibrated probabilities or spray-height predictions.
- The pilot does not resolve bathymetry, wave refraction, reflected waves, surge residuals separately or salt deposits on holds.
- A sheltered wind direction does not establish shelter from swell. Offshore direction never establishes safe access.
No climbing score, safe-access interval or notification is produced. These crags are excluded from live rankings. Rock type is descriptive here; salt, seepage and drying are not yet modelled for this pilot.
Returned marine grid centre: 50.5, -2. Small coves, headlands and ledges are not resolved.