Mid Wales and Cambrian Mountains
A poor day on the tops in Mid Wales and the Cambrian Mountains, with burns in severe spate and rain for much of the day.
Sunshine and sky
Sunshine through the day. The time blocks show where the model places the brighter spells.
These are direct modelled sunshine hours during daylight, not the probability of sunshine. Cloud cover and summit cloud are assessed separately in the forecast above. The regional median prevents one unusually bright or dull summit cell defining the whole area.
Overnight forecast: 17:00–08:00 (UK local time), in Wild camping below.
High-ground wind (700 m)
At around 700 m, expect a westerly wind of 20–30 mph, gusting 25–35 mph. Gusts like that will be noticeable on ridges and open tops, and you will chill quickly when you stop.
Walking impact
Gusts of 25–35 mph will be noticeable on ridges and open tops, and you will chill quickly when you stop.
Thunderstorms
There is a small chance of a thunderstorm from the morning into the afternoon. If you hear thunder, head down off the tops and away from ridges. If a thunderstorm develops, sudden gusts and heavy rain can change conditions quickly.
Ground conditions
The ground is likely to be wet after recent rain.
Spate risk
Severe spate risk based on recent and forecast rainfall. Burns and unbridged crossings may become difficult or impassable. Timing and severity can vary between catchments. Check the peak forecast for the separate rain/runoff periods. Turn back if a crossing looks unsafe.
Rain and showers
Rain for much of the day, turning lighter later. Expect 5–10 mm in total. Rain is possible during the morning and afternoon, but forecast models disagree on whether it will fall. Some forecast models bring rain during the afternoon, while others keep it mostly dry. Visibility may drop briefly in showers in parts of the area.
Cloud-free summits
Clear-summit estimate: about 40% early, about 25% around midday and about 20% later.
Cloud and visibility
The tops are likely to drift in and out of cloud, with the best chance of clear tops early on. The cloud base lowers through the day. The cloud base could be as low as 500–800 m by late afternoon. In cloud you'll be finding your way without landmarks, so carry navigation you trust and know how to use, with a backup such as a spare battery or a map and compass. Some forecast models are much cloudier overhead. That may limit sunshine without putting the summits in cloud.
Temperature and wind chill
At around 700 m it will be 2 to 6°C, feeling like -6 to -2°C in the wind. Take a hat, gloves, a windproof and a spare warm layer. Pack waterproofs too, and keep a warm layer dry in your pack.
Freezing level
The freezing level is above the summits.
Daylight
Sunrise 07:39, Sunset 16:18, about 8.7 hours daylight.
Overnight · 17:00–08:00Wild campingBetaAcross these hills, a mixed night to camp, mainly because of the wind: about 4 mm of rain. 50Mixed · 600 m View detailsHide details
Full regional overnight outlook
Across these hills, a mixed night to camp, mainly because of the wind. Gusts reach about 35 mph on open ground, so peg out well and use the guylines. Look for shelter from the west. About 4 mm of rain is forecast overnight. At every height we checked (300-900 m) you'd likely be in cloud for part of the night: damp, and hard to find your way if you need to move. A cold night, down to about 2°C around 900 m.
Moon overnight
Waxing gibbous moon
- Illuminated disc
- 55%
- Moonrise
- Outside this window
- Moonset
- 23:41 GMT
Cloud and terrain vary across the area. Illumination describes the sunlit part of the Moon, not brightness at your pitch.
Overnight window: 17 Nov, 17:00 GMT to 18 Nov, 08:00 GMT. Approximate open-horizon times; hills can hide the Moon. Still take a headtorch.
Representative location: 52.787, -3.688. Times vary across the area.
Elevation reference (open ground)
- Wind / gust
- 14 mph / 25 mph
- Coldest
- 6.9°C
- In cloud
- 67% of modelled night
- Condensation
- High
- Wind / gust
- 18 mph / 30 mph
- Coldest
- 5.0°C
- In cloud
- 73% of modelled night
- Condensation
- High
- Wind / gust
- 20 mph / 34 mph
- Coldest
- 1.5°C
- In cloud
- 100% of modelled night
- Condensation
- High
Open-hillside guidance across representative hills. Local shelter, ridges, tent design and the exact pitch can change conditions substantially. Read about sleeping-bag comfort ratings, pitching in strong winds or using the wild-camping forecast.
Daytime · exposed rockClimbing & scramblingBetaSnow is likely to be lying on some high ground. Scrambling may require winter mountaineering skills and equipment. Wet rock is likely. Gusts near 35 mph may affect balance on exposed rock. A small chance of a thunderstorm in parts of the area. Avoid exposed scrambling if storms develop. 0Poor · Very poor View detailsHide details
Regional climbing & scrambling outlook
A broad guide to dampness and exposed rock across the area, not a forecast for every crag. Lower, sheltered crags and individual rock types may behave differently.
Conditions for exposed scrambling across the area look very poor (0/100). Rain is likely to leave rock wet. Polished slabs, vegetation and drainage lines may be notably worse. Gusts may reach about 35 mph on exposed ground, making crosswinds an important route consideration. Mapped summit-point geology across the representative hills includes volcanic rock, granite, gneiss or gabbro and sandstone or gritstone. Rock can therefore respond differently to moisture between crags and routes. A small chance of a thunderstorm in parts of the area. Storm timing is uncertain, so avoid committing to exposed rock if storms may develop.
Representative summit-point samples across the region; individual crags and routes may differ.
Generic exposed hands-on-rock terrain across representative summits; mapped summit-point geology is a broad regional sample, not a named-route survey. Contains British Geological Survey materials © UKRI 2026. How to use the climbing and scrambling forecast.
Recommended kit for this dayWeather-aware packing prompts, plus your core hillwalking kitView kit
For a day hillwalk, not a complete route-specific checklist. Carry navigation and backup you can use, warm and waterproof layers, suitable footwear, food and water, a headtorch, emergency shelter, first aid and a way to call for help. Snow, ice, technical terrain and overnight trips need additional equipment and skills.
Does the weather shape your plans?Optional hill-user research. One answer helps; further questions are up to you.Take part
Help the Mountain Decisions Project understand how forecasts influence hill days, including when plans stay the same. Findings will be shared publicly as summaries, not individual responses.
This is about Mid Wales and Cambrian Mountains on Tuesday 17 November 2026. It asks about intentions, not whether you actually went out. No name or account is needed.
Open the questions to take part.
About the research and your privacy · Already been out? Share that experience instead
Weather data: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0). Adapted by Mountain Weather.
Updated 14 November 2026 at 16:37 UTC. See typical weekly and monthly conditions for Mid Wales and Cambrian Mountains.